Oracle Stock Cut in Half Since June: $20B Raise Meets Weak Chart

Oracle closed Friday at $116.10 — a price last seen in June 2023, after a more-than-50% slide from its $250.25 peak this June. The stock had gained over 50% across 12 months before giving all of it back, and a moomoo markets analysis finds the technicals offer little immediate comfort.

What did Oracle just raise $20 billion for?

The software giant priced a combined $20 billion stock and bond offering on Nov. 2 to keep funding its AI-infrastructure investments. The deal included 86.2 million shares priced at $116 each — roughly an 11% discount to the stock's Oct. 30 close, just before the sale's announcement.

The equity portion should generate about $9.9 billion in net proceeds. Oracle also priced $10 billion of senior notes across five tranches, with maturities stretching from 2029 to 2046 and coupon rates between 7% and 8.65%.

Those coupons aren't cheap. As moomoo's commentator notes, the bonds add to a balance sheet that some investors already consider overburdened with debt.

Why did the midterms complicate the story?

The U.S. midterm elections landed one day after Oracle's pricing, and they threw the Big Tech and AI trades a curveball. Broad voter support for Democrats suddenly made anything AI- or data-center-related suspect, Oracle's business included.

There's a political wrinkle too. Chairman Larry Ellison and his family have well-known ties to Republican President Donald Trump — a combination moomoo's analyst says "could make for a tough road ahead — or at least an uncertain one — for the software giant."

What do analysts expect for fiscal Q2?

The Street expects Oracle to release fiscal Q2 results in early December. Analysts are looking for $1.89 in adjusted EPS on roughly $21.33 billion of revenue.

That revenue figure would mean nearly 33% annual sales growth. But the EPS estimate sits 16.4% below the $2.26 in adjusted earnings Oracle posted a year earlier.

The sell side is split. Of the 33 analysts covering ORCL that moomoo's commentator tracks, 12 have lowered earnings estimates since the quarter began, 16 have raised them, and five left theirs unrevised.

What does the chart show?

Oracle's six-month chart through Wednesday afternoon, Nov. 4, shows something close to a descending-triangle pattern — and descending triangles are patterns of bearish continuation.

There is a bull case hiding in it. If Oracle finds support at the triangle's lower trendline, around $100, the pattern would start to resemble a double bottom — a bullish reversal. As moomoo's analyst puts it: "So, there's something here for the bulls to at least grab onto."

The moving averages tell a tougher story. Oracle hasn't had much success reclaiming its key averages this autumn:

• Rallies have stalled at the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (green line on the chart).
• The stock was stopped at its 50-day Simple Moving Average (blue line) as recently as late October.
• It was rejected at the 200-day SMA (red line) in early September.

In plain terms, that suggests professional money managers are selling the stock whenever it reaches those levels.

What about momentum indicators?

The Relative Strength Index — the gray line at the chart's top — has moved toward the neutral line but remains weakish. The daily MACD is postured moderately negatively. Within it, the 9-day EMA histogram (the blue bars) is running just below the zero-bound, which is bearish. Meanwhile, the 12-day EMA (black line) and the 26-day EMA (gold line) are both running together in negative territory.

The bottom line: Oracle needs to hold that $100 trendline, or the descending triangle points lower.

Note: Moomoo Technologies markets commentator Stephen "Sarge" Groff held no position in ORCL at the time of writing. The analysis is illustrative and not a research report or investment recommendation; past performance does not guarantee future results.