Rubio Says US-India Trade Deal 'About as Close as You Can Be'

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared on Tuesday in Mumbai that a U.S.-India trade agreement is nearly done. "We're very, very close. I would say we're about as close as you can be without having executed the agreement," he told reporters. "I think there's a small number of items left to wrap up, so I think that will happen shortly."

The numbers behind that optimism tell a more complicated story. Washington slapped tariffs of up to 50% on most Indian goods in August 2025 after trade talks broke down. A framework agreed in February brought the rate down to 18%, but negotiations have since stalled.

What's holding the deal back?

Two things: tariffs and Russian oil. India wants a final tariff rate similar to those of competing manufacturing countries such as Vietnam. Meanwhile, India's purchases of discounted Russian crude since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 have strained ties with Washington at times.

Indian officials have split publicly on how close a deal really is. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said earlier this month that the talks had "plateaued." Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal countered last week that the first tranche of a trade deal was in its final stages.

Rubio, speaking in the U.S. on Saturday before his departure, acknowledged the oil problem won't vanish overnight. "You've got countries like India, for example, that have voluntarily diversified their energy portfolio, but are still getting a substantial amount of energy from Russia because it's hard to pivot from one day to the next," he said. "But they're also an important ally and partner of the United States."

India has said it will expand energy imports, including from the U.S., while diversifying suppliers to maintain market stability and keep prices affordable.

Who did Rubio meet?

Rubio held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in Mumbai on Tuesday. Jaishankar said the two discussed strengthening bilateral ties in trade, energy, technology and defense, along with regional developments.

The pair also held a trilateral meeting with United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who was visiting India at the same time. Rubio said the three officials met to discuss "regional energy security and advance our shared economic priorities."

Despite the trade friction, defense and technology cooperation keeps deepening. Washington views India as a key counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific.

Why Jamnagar matters for business

On Wednesday, Rubio is scheduled to visit a refinery in Jamnagar, in Gujarat state, and meet with business leaders, according to the U.S. State Department. The facility, operated by Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries, is the world's largest refining complex.

That stop carries commercial weight beyond symbolism. In March, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Reliance is investing $300 billion to set up an oil refinery in Brownsville, Texas — a figure that dwarfs most single-company energy commitments and signals how intertwined the two countries' energy sectors have become.

The Mumbai stop follows Rubio's trip to Uzbekistan this week to promote trade and ties with Central Asia. He last visited India in May.

For companies watching the tariff line, the question now is whether Goyal's "final stages" or Sitharaman's "plateaued" proves the better guide — and Rubio's Wednesday meeting with business leaders at the world's largest refinery suggests the energy file may move first.