S&P 500 Loses Weekly Uptrend Before CPI, PPI and Earnings

The S&P 500 closed the week at 7,376.86, down 2.68%, leaving no live weekly uptrend, Ivan Labrie said in his “SPX Time@Mode #8” analysis.

Labrie called the post a follow-up to #7. He put inflation at the center of the week. He wrote: “On the surface this week is all about inflation: October CPI prints Tuesday with Governor Waller speaking after, PPI prints Friday, and December hike pricing went from 0.63 to 0.75 after Friday's +165K payroll.”

In Labrie's framework, those releases set the immediate test for the bearish setup.

What does the weekly chart now signal?

Labrie said the 9/25 weekly uptrend signal failed under 7,483.79. He calls that level the Warsh key level. A weekly close below it keeps his bearish condition active.

• 7,483.79: The Warsh key level. Labrie's failure targets remain relevant while weekly closes stay below it.
• 7,150: Downside failure target.
• 6,910: Lower downside failure target.

The weekly framework gives Labrie two targets after the failure and one closing threshold for keeping his bearish call intact. A brief move beneath 7,483.79 does not meet his close-based condition.

In Labrie's framework, the time frames serve different roles. The weekly close determines whether the failure targets stay active. The daily chart tracks nearer downside objectives. The expired monthly uptrend removes a broader sign of recovery.

Labrie kept his bearish stance as the broader chart supplied no countertrend, calling the monthly picture dangerous and confirming that its previously active uptrend had expired.

What does the daily setup show?

On the daily chart, Labrie said the third downtrend signal had already hit its first target.

• First target: 7,509. Hit on the 11/5 low of 7,350.35.
• Second target: 7,320. Still open.

In Labrie's setup, the 7,320 daily target sat less than 1% below Friday's 7,376.86 close. The weekly 7,483.79 threshold sat above that close.

Labrie required a weekly close beneath 7,483.79 to keep the bearish condition active, leaving the daily, weekly and monthly time frames without a confirmed bullish reversal.

What must change for a bullish turn?

Labrie set 7,751.53 as the strict invalidation. It is the stop for his most recent downtrend, marked by a red box on the chart.

Labrie's bullish setup requires a base over a few days, followed by 5 bars with higher lows and then a fresh price push once accumulation has formed.

• Build a base over a few days.
• Form 5 bars with higher lows.
• Push higher after accumulation.

Each step depends on the one before it. Until those conditions develop, Labrie said: “Until then I stay bearish.”

The monthly uptrend remains expired. The 7,751.53 invalidation sits above both key downside references and remains the strict price invalidation for the bearish call.

What could squeeze the short setup?

Labrie identified a catalyst risk for his bearish position. A soft CPI print on Tuesday, or Waller leaning against a December hike, could squeeze shorts.

Cisco and Applied Materials report Thursday after the bell. Labrie placed those earnings alongside the macro calendar. They add two after-hours company events to an inflation-heavy week.

• Tuesday: October CPI, followed by Governor Waller.
• Thursday after the bell: Cisco and Applied Materials report.
• Friday: PPI.

Labrie's stated catalyst risk centered on Tuesday, when soft CPI data or Waller leaning against a December hike could squeeze shorts and challenge the bearish setup before Friday's PPI print.

Labrie said he would update the analysis as the week developed. His framework stays bearish while the index closes below 7,483.79. The open daily target is 7,320, with weekly failure levels at 7,150 and 6,910. Strict invalidation remains 7,751.53.