S&P 500 Stays Below 7,611 After Three Lower Highs Since Oct. 6

By Amara Osei

The S&P 500 remains below 7,611 after three successive lower highs, according to Trade-Lean’s TradingView chart analysis. Trade-Lean listed the index’s highs at 7,853 on October 6, 7,792 on October 28 and 7,724 on November 4. He said every push stopped lower.

Trade-Lean’s chart shows price inside a 7,582-7,611 zone. He placed the 20-day average at 7,631, just above that range. He calls the arrangement bearish on the daily chart, where rallies tend to stall and drift lower.

Trade-Lean said the rebound from last week’s selloff has been real, but he still sees a lower ceiling. Last Thursday, the S&P 500 dropped from 7,716 to 7,334 in one session, according to his chart note. Friday tagged 7,301, almost exactly the 7,300 floor from July 29, before Monday recovered 210 points.

Tuesday’s CPI dip to 7,475 was bought, Trade-Lean said. Price later climbed to about 7,605 before easing near 7,590. That move did not take the index above 7,611. The S&P 500 remains inside the 7,582-7,611 zone that anchors his bearish daily setup.

Where does the bearish setup point?

Trade-Lean wrote: “The plan: as long as no daily candle closes above 7,611, I expect a slow slide back to 7,535, the line Tuesday closed just above.” The chart note says a first touch of 7,535 usually produces a bounce toward 7,580 before price heads toward 7,459.

The 7,535 level serves two roles in Trade-Lean’s setup. It is the immediate downside target and the line that Tuesday’s close held slightly above. He expects a slow approach rather than a straight-line fall, with a possible bounce to 7,580 from that first touch.

Trade-Lean’s larger trend view remains constructive despite the short-term bearish call. “This is a pullback inside a bigger uptrend, not the end of it,” he wrote. The note treats 7,459 as the next downside line if 7,535 fails, not as a declaration that the broader uptrend has ended.

Trade-Lean’s map separates the first downside test from the broader bearish call. The 7,535 target and expected 7,580 bounce both sit below the 7,611 ceiling. His 7,657 and 7,716 upside levels return to focus only after a daily close clears that ceiling.

What would break the bearish setup?

A daily close above 7,611 invalidates Trade-Lean’s bearish plan, according to the chart note. Such a close would put 7,657 and 7,716 back in play, he said. His four-hour setup may still extend higher during the session, but the signal counts only the daily close.

The distinction matters because the latest push reached roughly 7,605, below 7,611. Price then eased near 7,590, still within the 7,582-7,611 zone and below the 7,631 20-day average. Neither move met the daily-close requirement in Trade-Lean’s framework.

Which levels define the trade?

Trade-Lean’s watchlist assigns one role to each price:

• 7,716 — Just under the November 4 high.
• 7,657 — The first line above the zone.
• 7,582 to 7,611 — The zone where price is stuck.
• 7,535 — The target and the line Tuesday closed just above.
• 7,459 — The next line if 7,535 gives way.

A close above 7,611 would shift attention from 7,535 to 7,657 and then 7,716, Trade-Lean said. A close below 7,611 keeps 7,535 in view, followed by 7,459 if that level gives way.

With CPI behind the market, the next completed session will test Trade-Lean’s 7,611 threshold. The result would determine whether his slow-slide plan toward 7,535 remains active or his upside levels return to focus.