Saudi Arabia's Oil Windfall Hits $210 Billion Amid Iran War

Saudi Arabia's annualized oil export revenues have surged to $210 billion, up from $150 billion before the Iran war started in February, according to Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. The windfall equals more than 6% of GDP.

The math is straightforward. Brent crude futures have soared roughly 75% this year and now trade at about $107 per barrel. That price spike has more than offset a sharp decline in export volume.

Brooks calculated the volume swings in a Substack post on Saturday. Saudi Arabia shipped about 7 million barrels per day before the war. Exports collapsed to less than 4 million in March and April. They recovered to 5.5 million this month.

"The Saudi Kingdom is perhaps the only winner in this war," Brooks wrote.

The headlines have told a different story since the conflict began. Saudi GDP has contracted. Iran-backed forces have attacked its oil infrastructure. Tehran closed the Strait of Hormuz, the kingdom's critical export artery.

President Donald Trump also complicated Riyadh's position. He reportedly turned down Saudi requests to help fight the Houthis threatening Red Sea oil exports, despite the defense pact between the two allies. That refusal forced Riyadh to contemplate a future with less U.S. intervention in a more dangerous environment.

Pipeline Back Online

The U.S. military's protection of tankers has helped restore much of the oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz. That allowed Saudi Arabia to pivot back toward the Persian Gulf after attacks on its East-West Pipeline halted exports via the Red Sea.

That outlet is now back. Bloomberg reported on Monday that Saudi Arabia has resumed oil exports from the pipeline, with flows reaching about 3.5 million barrels a day. The figure sits well below the pipeline's full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, but it comes just weeks after Iran-backed militias in Iraq damaged the pipeline and forced a temporary shutdown.

The geometry of the war has worked in Riyadh's favor. "Folks, at this point in time, any exports Saudi achieves via the Red Sea is just icing on their $100/barrel cake," Tanker Trackers pointed out on Sunday. "The Iranian proxies in Yemen and Iraq did Saudi a favor by forcing them to ship out crude via the east coast where the U.S. was already ramping up convoy protection."

Risks Remain

The kingdom's oil sector is still vulnerable. Iran or its regional allies could strike again. The Houthis have solidified their control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea chokepoint.

Ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran remain in limbo with little sign of progress. Some on Wall Street predict the war could drag on deep into 2027.

But Iran's own position looks catastrophic by comparison. The U.S. naval blockade is crushing its economy and preventing any of its oil from reaching export markets. Brooks added that whenever the war ends, a massively weakened Iran will depend on foreign aid for years as it rebuilds a shattered economy.

Saudi Arabia, by contrast, is positioned to export from both directions. It can load crude at its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu now that the East-West Pipeline is repaired, and from its Persian Gulf ports.

"If increased exports from the east coast are sustained as loadings from Yanbu recover, total Saudi exports could feasibly rise beyond levels seen before the pipeline attacks," Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said in a note earlier this month.

If east coast volumes hold while Yanbu ramp-ups continue, Saudi Arabia could exit the war with larger export volumes than it had before the first missile landed.