Silver Eyes $45.60 as Dollar Pressure Builds, Exness Says

Silver is trading below its 20-day exponential moving average, and Exness strategist Krisada Yoonaisil sees the next meaningful support at $45.60 per ounce if that ceiling holds.

The analysis, published by Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness, lays out a bearish short-term case built on three pressures: a stronger US dollar, expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening, and rising oil prices stoking inflation concerns.

Why is silver under pressure?

The currency equation comes first. Silver prices fell as a firmer dollar and hawkish Fed expectations weighed on sentiment, Yoonaisil writes. Rising oil prices add to inflation worries — a combination that keeps the metal on the defensive.

The immediate catalyst to watch is US PPI data. In Yoonaisil's reading, silver may stay volatile with a downside bias until those numbers land. A stronger-than-expected print could reinforce tightening expectations and pile more pressure on the price.

Does the supply deficit change the picture?

Partially. The Silver Institute forecasts a sixth consecutive annual supply deficit of 35 million ounces in 2026. That's a striking streak — six years where demand outpaces mine output and other supply.

But the deficit's bite is softening on two fronts:

• Industrial demand is projected to decline by 3%, as solar manufacturers reduce silver consumption.
• Increased recycling is helping ease supply tightness.

So the structural shortfall persists, yet the market's tightest edges are wearing down. Solar's pullback matters: photovoltaics have been a key demand engine for silver, and a 3% industrial decline chips at the bullish supply story even as the deficit stretches into a sixth year.

The takeaway: the deficit supports silver's longer-term floor, but it isn't enough to offset Fed-driven headwinds right now.

What do the charts say?

The technicals align with the fundamentals. XAGUSD rebounded to test EMA20 before retreating again, Yoonaisil notes, continuing to form lower swing highs — a pattern consistent with a downtrend. The price sits below diverging bearish EMAs, which the strategist reads as strengthening bearish momentum.

Two scenarios frame the range:

• Bearish path: If XAGUSD stays below EMA20, the price may fall toward the next support at $45.60.
• Bullish path: A rebound above the last swing high near $53.50 could prompt a test of the next resistance at $54.70.

That's roughly an 11% downside to $45.60 against a smaller upside leg to $54.70 from the $53.50 trigger — an asymmetry that matches the analyst's downside bias.

What happens next?

The PPI release is the near-term pivot. A hot number likely strengthens the dollar and tightening bets, pressuring silver toward that $45.60 support; a break above $53.50 is the level that would invalidate the bearish structure and open the door to $54.70. Until one of those levels gives way, Yoonaisil's setup treats every bounce as a test of a falling ceiling.