Smaller Packages, Bigger Shift: Why Grocery Shelves Are Shrinking by 2035

By Nathan Brooks

The grocery store of 2035 will carry smaller packages — and this time, the smaller size is the selling point, not a stealth price hike. That's the core warning in a new report from consumer intelligence firm NielsenIQ, which argues that packaging built for upselling, pantry loading and high consumption now serves a world that no longer exists.

Unlike shrinkflation — packing less product into the same package at the same price — the coming era of mini cans and personal packs is explicit. PepsiCo is already testing mini cans at a low price point, and Campbell's rolled out 2.5-ounce single packs of Goldfish last year that retail for under $2.

Mike Del Pozzo, president of PepsiCo's U.S. beverages division, said in June the company was considering "new price points and pack sizes" for other beverages too. The NielsenIQ report says smaller formats are showing up fastest in soft drinks, ready-to-eat cereal and salty snacks, but building in other categories as well.

What's driving the shift?

Three forces are converging, according to the report:

• Average household size has fallen from 2.6 people in 2000 to 2.5 today, driven by economic pressure and delayed family formation.
• 21% of households now have at least one GLP-1 user, meaning more consumers are simply buying less food.
• Food-at-home prices rose 2.7% year over year as of June, squeezing checkout totals.

Put plainly: designing for big families with deep pantries is designing for a shrinking customer base. "If the American household is shrinking, the way it shops is shrinking right along with it," the report says.

What does this change for manufacturers and retailers?

The practical question for CPG players is how to define value when the old playbook — bigger packs, lower unit prices, more volume per trip — stops working. NielsenIQ's answer is that value itself is being redefined.

"Value traditionally sits at the intersection of unit price and product attributes that are important to the shopper," the report says. "Smaller packages can create value in a different way by lowering the upfront cost, improving storage of the items, reducing the risk of waste, and better matching the amount a shopper needs based on what they know they will fully consume."

Yes, the unit price on a mini can runs higher than the bulk equivalent. But for an inflation-pressed shopper, the number that matters is the one at checkout — and a $2 Goldfish pack beats a family-size box that half of it goes stale.

The end of the Costco run?

Not quite. Bulk retail will keep its pull among consumers chasing volume discounts, the report acknowledges. But the pattern underneath grocery is already changing: fill-in shopping — quick trips to top up a few items — now makes up most grocery trips, and NielsenIQ expects those trips to carry even smaller portion sizes over time.

For packaging designers, that means portioned servings and trial sizes stop being niche SKUs and become the default design brief. For retailers, shelf strategy and planograms will need to make room for formats that maximize trips rather than baskets.

The signal for the industry is hard to ignore: one in five households already has a GLP-1 user, and that share is growing. Brands that keep designing for the 2000-era household of 2.6 people are optimizing for a demographic that's literally disappearing.