Spectrum Shortages Could Put $520 Billion of 6G Gains at Risk

By Olivia Hart

Insufficient spectrum access could put $520 billion—42%—of 6G’s projected $1.24 trillion global economic gain at risk by 2040, according to GSMA.

The mobile operator group released Vision 2040: The Economic Benefits of 6G on Thursday. The report puts 6G’s added contribution at 0.7% of global gross domestic product in 2040. It measures that value above what mobile networks would deliver if 5G remained the most advanced technology.

GSMA attributes the uplift to advances in artificial intelligence, integrated sensing, industrial automation, immersive digital services and ubiquitous connectivity. The forecast depends on governments releasing enough spectrum in time. Crucial international spectrum decisions are approaching at the 2027 World Radiocommunication Conference, WRC-27.

What does the $1.24 trillion forecast include?

The report identifies manufacturing and financial services as the two largest beneficiaries of 6G’s additional 2040 contribution. Construction and information and communications technology form the next tier.

• Manufacturing: 20% of the additional contribution.
• Financial services: 19%.
• Construction: 13%.
• Information and communications technology: 12%.

By region, GSMA forecasts Greater China at $390 billion in additional value by 2040, North America at $290 billion and Europe at $225 billion. The announcement lists no other regional totals. The three disclosed figures sum to about $905 billion, leaving about $335 billion of the global estimate outside the regional breakdown.

It also omits operator revenue, deployment costs, a firm commercial launch date and the forecast method. That leaves the headline estimate without a costed rollout against which to test it.

Takeaway: Manufacturing and finance lead the forecast, but GSMA has not put the headline value against a disclosed rollout cost or schedule.

How does GSMA expect 6G to create value?

GSMA describes 6G as AI-native. It expects networks to carry data and sense their surroundings, support intelligent decision-making and integrate terrestrial and satellite connectivity.

The report identifies five routes to incremental economic value:

• Connectivity for future AI systems.
• Industrial automation and robotics.
• Enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access.
• Integrated sensing and communication.
• Non-terrestrial networks extending connectivity into underserved areas.

GSMA says these capabilities can improve business productivity, support new products and services, and extend digital innovation into sectors and locations that current networks cannot fully support. The scale of gains will depend on the pace of 6G adoption, national infrastructure and businesses’ ability to integrate new technologies.

Takeaway: GSMA’s forecast depends on adoption and business integration, not just on building faster networks.

Why can spectrum constraints erase $520 billion?

The report assigns 70% of 6G’s 2040 economic contribution to mid-band spectrum. GSMA links that share to the capacity and performance needed for advanced digital services.

Low-band spectrum contributes approximately 25%, chiefly by extending coverage across rural areas, inside buildings and to locations where higher frequencies cannot reach effectively. Constrained access to these ranges could reduce 6G’s contribution by as much as $520 billion in 2040. GSMA warns that this loss would come on top of wider damage to existing mobile networks, which share the same spectrum resources.

John Giusti, GSMA’s Chief Regulatory Officer, said: “6G represents a $1.24 trillion opportunity for the global economy.” He warned: “But these benefits are not guaranteed. More than $500 billion of the economic value will depend on the spectrum decisions governments make today to fully realize the economic potential of 6G in the decades ahead.”

GSMA’s announcement does not quantify the wider damage to existing networks or identify the countries most exposed to shortages.

Takeaway: Most of the projected value depends on spectrum bands that governments must allocate.

What must governments do before WRC-27?

The report gives governments and regulators three priorities.

• Make at least 2 GHz of mid-band spectrum available by around 2030, then release more as 6G demand grows. This should include upper 6 GHz spectrum, supported by additional capacity in the upper 3.5 GHz, 4.5 GHz and 7 GHz bands.
• Make the 600 MHz band available for 6G to strengthen rural and indoor coverage and support connected devices and services. Consider 500 MHz where appropriate.
• Publish clear, timely national spectrum roadmaps. GSMA says these give operators the certainty to plan investment and deploy next-generation networks ahead of demand.

GSMA also says internationally coordinated spectrum planning will be critical as WRC-27 approaches. Its warning ties the conference directly to operators’ investment certainty and the 2040 economic forecast.

Giusti concluded: “Spectrum is not simply a technical requirement for mobile networks; it is a foundation for future economic growth. With 6G on the horizon, governments have an opportunity to ensure their economies can benefit from the next wave of digital innovation. Getting spectrum policy right now will be essential to making that happen.”

Takeaway: WRC-27 will test whether governments can give operators the spectrum certainty needed for 6G investment decisions.