SPY Reclaims 150-Day Average at 751.2 as VIX Stress Unwinds

SPY rose 2.59% to 754.37 for the week ending November 13 and reclaimed its 150-day average at 751.2, according to TradingView analyst TradeSentinelNotes. The move repaired the market's stress signals. It did not confirm a new advance.

The volatility picture normalized fast. On Monday, November 9, the VIX touched 25.08 and closed at 19.92 — a reversal of more than five points that the analyst's framework flags as a qualifying white-flag signal. The same day, the VIX/VIX3M ratio fell back below 1.0 to 0.955, meeting the framework's defined long signal with VIX under 30.

The ratio held contango all week and closed Friday at 0.936. VIX finished at 19.30, down from 25.64 the prior week. VVIX, the volatility-of-volatility gauge, dropped from 121.94 to 101.53.

What did breadth show?

Participation improved alongside the bounce. S&P 500 stocks above their 20-day average climbed from 59.76% to 66.99%, and those above their 200-day rose from 55.97% to 63.81%, per TradeSentinelNotes. Russell 3000 participation stands at 53.36% above the 20-day and 51.61% above the 200-day. Friday's NYSE tape was roughly balanced: 50.3% advancers and 54.9% up-volume.

One measure did not cooperate. NYSE new highs and new lows moved from 17/87 to 22/93 — new lows expanded even as prices recovered. That failure sits at the center of the analyst's cautious thesis.

"The acute stress phase has been released, but the recovery has not been confirmed," TradeSentinelNotes wrote. "Volatility and participation say the panic is over. Leadership measures (new highs versus new lows) and the unfinished repair in the major averages say this is still a relief rally under test, not a new advance."

Equal-weight strength backs that reading. RSP, the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF proxy in the analysis, gained 2.37% to 221.16 and trades above its entire moving-average stack. The average stock improved. Yet NYSE new lows still expanded, and Friday delivered a higher-volume decline in SPY of 0.36%.

Where does SPY sit against its averages?

SPY holds above its 200-day average at 731.9 but still sits below its shorter-dated stack:

• 20-day average: 759.0
• 50-day average: 764.4
• 100-day average: 760.3
• 150-day average: 751.2 (reclaimed)
• 200-day average: 731.9

The unfinished reclaim of the 759–764 cluster keeps SPY in the "relief under test" category, the analyst argues, rather than a confirmed new advance.

What would validate or break the thesis?

The relief case stays intact under three conditions, per the framework: VIX/VIX3M remains below 1.0, VIX holds its recent 17.5–20 range, and SPY holds the reclaimed 150-day. RSP staying above its full average stack and participation holding the week's gains would signal a market repairing rather than breaking down.

A bullish resolution would show up as new lows contracting, SPY reclaiming the 759–764 area, and VIX moving toward 15–17 with VIX/VIX3M closer to 0.90.

The bearish tripwires are specific. VIX/VIX3M returning above 1.0, VVIX back above 120, or SPY losing the 150-day near 751 would turn Monday's long signal into a failed bounce.

How uneven was the repair?

The divergence analysis flags two weak sessions. Thursday's NYSE session showed just 21.4% advancers and 23.3% up-volume. Friday brought the higher-volume 0.36% SPY slip. "The repair is not one-directional," TradeSentinelNotes wrote.

RSP's full average stack and the S&P participation rebound sit against still-heavy NYSE new lows and SPY's unfinished reclaim of its shorter averages. That split, in the analyst's view, supports a relief rally in a market that has not yet rebuilt leadership. The week produced no 90% down-volume days, and VIX's Friday high of 20.92 kept it in what the framework calls the tense zone.

What happens next?

The bounce repaired stress and participation. It stays unconfirmed until NYSE new lows contract and SPY holds its recovered cushion above 751. Watch the VIX/VIX3M ratio at 1.0, VVIX at 120, and the NYSE highs/lows count at 22/93. Until those leadership measures turn, TradeSentinelNotes classifies this market as stress released with recovery not yet confirmed.