Taco Bell Traffic Still Down 12% as Cyclospora Outbreak Fallout Lingers

Taco Bell's visits per location fell 12.2% year over year between July 6 and Sept. 11, the full window from the first headlines of a cyclospora outbreak to the day the CDC declared it over, according to data from Placer.ai.

The outbreak, tied to iceberg lettuce supplied by Taylor Farms, sickened nearly 20,000 people nationwide beginning in July. Taco Bell pulled lettuce, cilantro-onion mix and pico de gallo early on, but the damage was already done. Traffic fell 18.1% by July 15, then plunged to -30.9% just two days later, measured against the chain's own average from earlier in the year, according to data cited by Restaurant Business.

The episode earned blunt shorthand in coverage as the "explosive diarrhea" outbreak, and it scared consumers away from lettuce across the summer. The outbreak itself is now officially over. Getting customers back has proved harder.

Taco Bell fought the slump with aggressive discounting. It sold $1 Enchiritos, normally priced around $4.29, and $1 Mexican Pizzas, normally around $5.69. The promotions were not enough to stop the double-digit decline in visits per location over the outbreak period.

"Chains tied to the cyclospora outbreak, including Taco Bell, saw visits per location fall over the same period," said R.J. Hottovy, head of analytical research at Placer.ai. Fast-casual rivals like Chipotle, Sweetgreen and Cava generally outperformed the category during that stretch, according to Placer.ai's data.

Yum! Brands, Taco Bell's parent company, remains optimistic about the recovery. CFO Ranjith Roy said in July that day-over-day sales trends had improved steadily and described the chain as "halfway back" to prior-year levels.

Speaking again this month, Roy said the recovery remains on track. "There's not a victory lap yet," he said, "but I think we have confidence that the long-term potential for Taco Bell remains unchanged."

The gap between an officially ended outbreak and a still-recovering customer base now defines Taco Bell's near-term challenge. Whether discount-driven traffic can hold without margin damage will shape the chain's results heading into the next quarter.