Tesla Earnings Bring SpaceX Merger Math Into Focus

By Daniel Okafor

Elon Musk said a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX would require approval from 50% of all Tesla shareholders. The boards of both companies formed special committees, which have not agreed on terms.

Wall Street projects Tesla’s third-quarter revenue at $27.9 billion for Wednesday, with earnings estimated at 43 cents a share. That would put revenue slightly below Tesla’s $28.23 billion result last quarter.

The call will test whether Musk can replace merger speculation and product promises with concrete terms and operating data.

What must happen for a SpaceX merger?

Musk raised the idea Tuesday during a call with SpaceX investors. “There’s a lot of merit to combining the companies,” he said.

The 50% shareholder threshold is the only concrete transaction term disclosed. The companies have announced no valuation, exchange ratio or closing date. Without those terms, investors cannot compare the value of any exchange or calculate who would bear the risks. The proposal remains an option, not a signed deal.

How has Tesla’s trading backdrop changed?

Tesla’s shares have fallen more than 11% this year amid increased competition from cheaper Chinese automakers. The shares appeared to rebound somewhat after last week’s report of a possible SpaceX merger.

Vehicle sales once carried more weight in Tesla’s market performance. Tesla has since pivoted toward robotics, autonomous driving and AI. That shift puts more weight on execution outside vehicle deliveries. Wednesday’s report will show whether the core business met Wall Street’s revenue forecast.

What did the Roadster 2 demonstration show?

Musk unveiled Tesla’s electric sports car, the Roadster 2, last week. He said it uses technology from SpaceX to “basically fly like a rocket.” At a SpaceX facility in Texas, a remote-controlled version climbed a steeply curved ramp. Jet-like thrusters then flipped it, lifted it into a hover and landed it.

Tesla prices the vehicle at upwards of $200,000. The Texas event tested the claimed technology, although the car was remote-controlled. “Flying cars are real … it can basically fly like a rocket, it can do rolls, crazy gymnastics,” Musk said at the event, adding that “I’m not sure it’s necessarily legal in all jurisdictions.” His wording left the vehicle’s legal status unresolved.

Can Tesla deliver its robotics and autonomy targets?

Tesla’s Optimus robot has faced production hurdles. Its Robotaxi service has hit roadblocks while scaling its fleet and expanding into new cities. Musk has said Robotaxi will have near-infinite demand. He previously forecast that “probably half of the population of the US” would use the service by the end of 2025.

Musk has also projected manufacture of as many as 1 million Optimus robots each year. He has not reached those targets, and rollout has been slow. A unit count or city list would give investors firmer evidence than Musk’s prior forecasts.

“Tesla’s leaders continue to make big claims about autonomous mobility and physical AI. The company has achieved remarkable things but continues to miss some of its leaders’ bolder bets,” said Paul Miller, a principal analyst for market research firm Forrester.

Miller added: “Tesla robotaxis are undeniably carrying passengers, but not yet at anywhere near the levels the company promised.”

What should Wednesday’s call resolve?

• Compare Tesla’s reported revenue with Wall Street’s $27.9 billion forecast and earnings with its 43-cent estimate.
• Press the special committees for transaction terms and the path to the required 50% Tesla shareholder vote.
• Seek concrete Optimus output, Robotaxi fleet size and the next cities added to service.

Wednesday’s call matters because Musk’s merger concept and AI targets now require disclosed terms, production data and evidence of geographic rollout from Tesla.