Top 1% of VCs Capture 57% of $1.2 Trillion in Profits

The top 1 percent of venture capitalists — roughly 120 individuals — captured about 57 percent of the approximately $1.2 trillion in inflation-adjusted net profits generated across the US venture industry, according to a new NBER study of more than 100,000 investor careers.

The paper, Human Capital in Venture Capital: Evidence from 100,000 Venture Capitalists (NBER Working Paper 35501), was written by Blake Jackson and Ilya A. Strebulaev. It examines whether individual differences in education, work experience and demographics explain who succeeds in VC, how careers progress, and why returns are so concentrated.

The stakes are large. The authors note that firms initially backed by venture capitalists account for 41 percent of US stock market capitalization, seven of the ten largest US companies by market value at the end of 2025, and 62 percent of public companies' R&D spending.

How the researchers built the dataset

Jackson and Strebulaev assembled a dataset covering more than 100,000 professionals affiliated with US VC firms, including 37,000 investment professionals. They used large language models, supplemented with manual validation, to extract biographical details from archived VC firm websites spanning 1996 to 2025. About half of the data points aren't available in standard commercial datasets.

The firms studied collectively raised and deployed 96 percent of the capital invested by institutional US venture funds during the sample period. Investment outcomes came from PitchBook, VentureSource and records extracted from the archived biographies.

How concentrated is VC success?

Very. Only 38 percent of VC investors — individuals who made at least one investment — were ever credited with a successful investment. Just 15 percent recorded three or more successes.

The top 5 percent of VCs account for about 90 percent of net profits. In dollar terms, that leaves the bottom 95 percent of investors splitting roughly $120 billion of the $1.2 trillion total.

Success also begets success. Investors with one prior success are 2 percentage points more likely to have a successful outcome on their next deal. Those with five prior successes are about 7 percentage points more likely to succeed — nearly a 50 percent jump relative to the average success rate.

What separates winners from the rest?

Successful investors disproportionately come from higher-ranked schools, hold top MBA degrees or advanced degrees, previously served as CEO or founder of a successful startup, or moved into VC from technology or investment banking careers. VCs with an MBA from a highly ranked school are estimated to generate net lifetime profits at least twice those of the average investor.

The gender gap is stark. Female VC investors are credited with 37 percent fewer successful investments on average than male VCs from the same entry cohort. Female professionals are also 2.6 percentage points less likely to be promoted to partner, though that gap has narrowed over time.

Professionals with MBAs, advanced degrees, prior startup or technology experience, and those who join VC firms at senior levels, are more likely to make partner.

Does fame itself pay?

The authors used the annual Forbes Midas List — which ranks the top 100 VCs each year — to test whether public recognition improves outcomes. They compared VCs who barely made the list to those who barely missed it.

The result: investors just above the inclusion threshold were more than 4 percent more likely to invest in companies with successful outcomes in the years after making the list. The effect concentrates in new investments rather than existing ones, suggesting recognition improves a VC's access to high-quality startups rather than conferring new investing skill.

For founders and LPs, the implication is direct: pedigree and Midas List status signal access and networks, not necessarily superior judgment. And for the industry, the numbers quantify what long looked obvious — a business of 100,000 investors where a few hundred people produce most of the value.