Trump Faces the Same Economy-Sentiment Gap That Sank Biden

By Olivia Hart

Consumer prices rose 3.7% over the past year while average hourly earnings climbed only 3%, and that seven-tenths-of-a-point gap is the political problem now sitting on Donald Trump's desk. The final inflation report before the midterm elections confirms what voters already feel at the checkout: prices remain high, whatever the headline growth numbers say.

It is a dilemma with a familiar shape. Joe Biden faced the same disconnect in 2024, when solid data failed to convince voters the economy worked for them. Trump won that year promising swift relief. "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down," he said during the campaign. Delivering on that promise has proved harder than expected.

What do the numbers actually say?

US economic growth of 2.2% would be respectable by the standards of many wealthy economies — Germany, for example, has struggled to generate comparable momentum. A stable unemployment rate of 4.2% hardly suggests an economy in freefall, and the stock market sits near record highs.

Trump argues he inherited an economic mess from Biden and points to growth, investment and market performance as evidence his policies are working. After the most recent inflation report, White House spokesman Matthew Middleton said the administration's "aggressive, pro-growth economic agenda" had blunted "Biden's inflation crisis". Larry Kudlow, a Trump ally and economic commentator, called the expansion "the greatest story never told", arguing that "nobody is getting fired".

Voters appear to be reading a different story — one in which Trump promised to tackle the cost of living, and prices kept rising anyway. Polls continue to give him poor marks on economic handling.

The takeaway in plain words: solid GDP and low unemployment are not translating into credit at the ballot box.

Why does 'inflation falling' mean two different things?

Celinda Lake, a veteran Democratic pollster who advised Biden's 2020 campaign but sat out 2024, says the problem starts with language. "When economists say inflation comes down, they mean the rate of increase has come down," she said. "When voters say inflation has come down, they mean the price has returned to what it was. Well, of course, it never returns to what it was."

Lake's point is blunt: voters judge the economy through personal experience, not indicators. "You can't argue with people about their own lived reality," she said.

The Biden administration spent much of 2024 highlighting low unemployment, solid growth and falling inflation. Many voters stayed fixed on the higher prices they paid daily. The lesson for both parties: when voters are anxious about prices, growth statistics rarely carry the argument.

How much of this is Trump's own doing?

Here the comparison with Biden breaks down. Biden could blame forces largely outside his control — the pandemic and its supply-chain aftershocks. Trump has less room.

"The inflation is clearly traceable to Donald Trump," said Peter Morici, a University of Maryland economist who aligns with Republicans. "It's his tariffs and the war. People know that. They see it."

The record gives that claim some support. Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, announced in April 2025, added to consumer costs. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found the tariffs raised consumer goods prices by about 2.9% — roughly three cents on every dollar at the store. The impact might have been larger had Trump not later paused some tariffs, struck new trade deals, and been blocked by the Supreme Court from using emergency powers to impose many others.

A second shock followed: the US-Israel conflict with Iran pushed oil prices higher, lifting petrol costs and squeezing household budgets further.

The White House counters with tax cuts, job growth and lower prescription drug costs as evidence it is delivering for families. Trump has also called for a cap on credit card interest rates and floated a $5,000 payment to American adults if Republicans retain control of Congress — proposals that concede the politics, if not the economics.

Biden never bridged the gap between economic performance and economic sentiment. The question heading into the midterms is whether Trump can. If recent political history is any guide, perceptions of the economy may matter more than the data itself.