U.S. Humanoid Robotics Revenue Faces 58% Hit From China Curbs

Washington's trade restrictions could leave the U.S. humanoid robotics market 58% smaller than its pre-restriction baseline by 2030, according to market research firm International Data Corporation (IDC). The IDC model projects over $6 billion in lost revenue by the end of the decade. Annual sector growth slows to about 9%, down from 13%.

The projection exposes a widening split in the global robotics industry. Chinese vendors now ship almost all of the world's humanoid robots, while U.S. rules wall off the American market from most of that supply.

What did the FCC actually do?

On July 28, the Federal Communications Commission added "foreign-produced advanced robotic devices" to its Covered List. The move blocks new models from obtaining the authorization needed for U.S. imports and sales.

The rules carry carve-outs. Previously authorized models can still be imported and sold, and some software and firmware updates are permitted through at least Jan. 1, 2029. Vendors can also seek conditional approval for new models, subject to a national-security review and commitments to shift production to the U.S.

U.S.-based robotics companies depend on China and other non-U.S. manufacturers for parts, including motors and batteries. Restrictions on those supply chains could raise costs and make it harder for American companies to scale production. Some U.S. startups have resorted to smuggling robot parts in their luggage, The Information reported in early August.

Why do humanoids take a bigger hit than cleaning robots?

Household cleaning robots shrink by only 18% by 2030 under the IDC model, a fraction of the humanoid market's projected 58% shortfall. IDC analysts argue that humanoid robots have shorter product life cycles than other types of robots, including household cleaning robots, which have a deep bench of already-certified models. Humanoid manufacturers are forced to update or replace their models more frequently.

"IDC's trade policy model puts U.S. humanoid robot revenue 58% below the pre-restriction baseline by 2030," IDC analysts wrote.

Are any companies getting relief?

Some are. On Oct. 23, the FCC granted a one-year waiver to Intel Corporation to keep updating and maintaining some of its robots. Intel had claimed that its automated guided vehicles were essential to domestic semiconductor manufacturing, and that no domestic alternative existed.

Who ships the world's humanoid robots?

IDC projects the global market for humanoid robots will keep growing regardless of U.S. policy. Vendors shipped an estimated 25,000 humanoid robots during the first six months of 2026 — 26% more than the 18,500 shipped in all of 2025. IDC projects more than 750,000 humanoid robots will ship by 2030.

Chinese vendors such as Unitree and AGIBOT account for roughly 95% of global humanoid shipments, according to IDC. Chinese companies like Roborock and Dreame Technology also lead the global market for household cleaning robots. Competition from China helped send iRobot, the maker of the Roomba, into bankruptcy; the company was snapped up by its China-based supplier, Shenzhen Picea Robotics.

Where does demand sit?

China and the U.S. made up 21% and 18% of global consumption respectively, IDC data shows. Europe buys more than double the U.S. share.

That demand mix leaves U.S. companies squeezed on both ends: they face the steepest revenue haircut among major markets while depending on the same Chinese supply chain that now serves most of the world's shipments. Unless waivers like Intel's become a broader pattern, IDC's numbers suggest the U.S. humanoid sector will spend the rest of the decade growing at two-thirds of its old pace.

By Amara Osei