UK Weighes Cutting 2030 EV Target to 50 Percent, Analysis Warns

A weakened 2030 electric vehicle target could add up to 147 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent to UK emissions — roughly 58 percent of the likely emissions from burning all the oil produced by the Rosebank field. That is the core finding of an Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit analysis, seen by the Guardian, as the government closes a consultation that could water down its central climate policy.

The numbers land on a market that is already moving. More than half of new cars sold in the UK last month were electric if hybrids are counted, and about 28 percent of new car sales were pure battery electric. EV drivers pay about 2.4p a mile, against roughly £120 for a full petrol or diesel tank. Two million people already drive EVs in the UK.

Why is the government reviewing a policy that appears to be working?

Under the zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, every new car and van sold from 2035 must be fully electric, with interim targets of 80 percent of new cars and 70 percent of new vans by 2030. The consultation that ended on Friday could soften the 2030 car target to 70 percent, or as low as 50 percent. The 2035 endpoint is expected to survive.

The ECIU calculates that a 70 percent target, combined with earlier concessions allowing more hybrid sales, would produce emissions greater than burning all the gas in the Jackdaw field — the project the government approved this week. A cut to 50 percent produces the 147-megatonne figure.

Jess Ralston, an analyst at the ECIU, argues the weakening solves nothing for manufacturers already facing Chinese competition, and costs households money given EVs can be £1,750 a year cheaper to run — potentially more if oil prices rise.

"With climate concern high among the public after extreme heat and persisting drought, and public support for net zero up above two-thirds, a decision to U-turn could look very odd," Ralston said. "Ministers have talked about getting families off the fossil fuel rollercoaster – this would be the opposite, locking in higher driving costs, more air pollution and higher carbon emissions."

The backdrop: Prime Minister Andy Burnham reaffirmed the 2050 net zero target in the Guardian this week, even while approving Jackdaw. Government sources hinted Rosebank, west of Shetland, is now less likely to get the green light. The EV decision has drawn far less attention despite, in earlier research, ranking as the largest single carbon-saving measure the government has proposed.

What does the EU trade squeeze mean for prices?

A further complication comes from Brussels. In 2024 the EU imposed tariffs on Chinese EVs and now wants to limit public subsidies to vehicles made in Europe, under pressure from European carmakers. If Burnham wants closer EU integration and better trade terms, he may have to match those tariffs on Chinese imports to the UK.

That would raise UK EV prices and close off one route to lower living costs. China now produces about three-quarters of the world's EVs, which account for roughly a quarter of new car sales globally.

How divided is Labour?

Deeply. Labour MPs from car-plant constituencies back the manufacturers, many of which were slow to retool for EVs and leaned on hybrids instead — a technology many analysts consider a dead end. Others argue soaring petrol prices make EVs a cost-of-living measure.

Chris Hinchliff, Labour MP for North East Hertfordshire, told the Guardian: "Weakening the EV target would be another nail in the coffin of a livable future."

Barry Gardiner, Labour MP for Brent West and a former environment minister, said a U-turn punishes companies that complied early. "Watering down the mandate means that good companies, who moved straight away to comply, feel they have been unfairly burdened with additional costs while their lazy competitors have sneaked an advantage," he said. "Government flip-flops are a huge problem for business. State the regulation clearly and then stick to it. Business will then adapt and do what it does best because it knows it has a level playing field."

What is the government's defence?

A government spokesperson said: "We are reviewing the ZEV mandate to ensure it continues to support British industry and investment, and no decisions have been taken. Crucially, the end goal has not changed – we will phase out all new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 and be fully zero emission by 2035, and remain committed to our legally binding net zero targets."

Note what the statement does not address: the 2030 interim targets, the potential EU tariff alignment, or the ECIU's emissions math. Consumer sentiment, meanwhile, points the other way — polling by the Electric Vehicle Association found 94 percent of EV drivers say they are saving money, and a similar share would buy electric again and recommend it to family or friends. The government's review now sits between that demand signal and a car industry that lobbied hard for relief; whatever ministers decide on the interim targets will show which side carried more weight.