Ukraine's Steel Output Has Collapsed 65% — and Metinvest's CEO Says Worse Is Coming

Ukrainian steel production fell from 21 million metric tons in 2021 to 7.4 million in 2025, and Metinvest CEO Yuriy Ryzhenkov says the industry's survival now hinges on decisions being made in Brussels as much as on the battlefield.

"If nothing is done, it's almost inevitable," Ryzhenkov said when asked whether Ukraine could be witnessing the end of its steelmaking industry. "If Ukraine is not allowed to participate in the European market fully, and at the same time the circumstances preclude any significant investments, then I mean everything comes to an end eventually."

Ryzhenkov has led Metinvest, Ukraine's largest steelmaker, since 2013. The company employs 33,700 people, more than 8,000 of whom are fighting Russian forces. Hundreds of Metinvest colleagues have been killed. He described the current period as the toughest since Russia's full-scale invasion began more than four years ago.

What did the August-September bombing campaign do?

Russian strikes forced Metinvest to halt both of its steel mills during what Ryzhenkov called one of the most severe bombing campaigns of the war.

"We lost 14 people at our steel mills, which was probably the largest loss since 2023 in a single bombing," he said. "That's where we are."

The damage compounds with every attack, even when facilities are patched back into service. "In wartime you cannot afford to restore to the original state. You do the best you can to continue operating and that best is never the ideal," Ryzhenkov said.

The maritime squeeze has also tightened. "The blockade of the seaports is more severe now than it was in 2022," he said. "We've been hit numerous times. Our facilities have been hit over the last four and a half years, and even though we were restoring them after every hit, you lose. You get weaker with every such attack."

Why is the EU the second front?

In July, the European Union applied new tariffs to all steel imports to shield its own industry from cheaper foreign competition. The key steel tariff-rate quota for Ukraine from July 2026 was cut by 60%, a reduction expected to cut EU imports of Ukrainian steel by 1.3 million metric tons per year, according to the GMK Center, a Ukrainian think tank.

"If you compare the quotas that were allocated to Ukraine this year to what was supplied last year, it's minus 60% and that's at the time when the ports were already closed, and we literally have no other alternative," Ryzhenkov said.

He contrasted the EU's response today with its posture at the start of the full-scale invasion. "When the invasion happened, the EU pretty much realized that for Ukraine the only available market is actually the EU with the blockade of ports. They abolished any restrictions for the steel to be supplied there, which was, in my view, the correct answer."

That openness has reversed. "And then suddenly, in the first half of this year, we got these quotas where we were pretty much dumped with all the other countries [outside the EU], and the fact that we had exceptional circumstances in terms of logistics, in terms of energy supply, in terms of personnel availability, they were not taken into account, in my view, at all," he said. "It was too harsh, given the circumstances."

Negotiations continue, and the EU has said it recognizes Ukraine as a unique case.

How bad are the numbers?

The dual pressure — armed invasion from the East, tariffs from the West — has already hollowed out the sector. Between 2021 and 2025:

• Steel production fell from 21 million metric tons to 7.4 million metric tons.
• Export value fell from $22 billion to $6 billion.
• Tax revenues dropped from $3.5 billion to $870 million.

Russia's repeated attacks on factories, energy systems and the railways are also degrading steel supply to the Ukrainian armed forces.

The economics of the industry leave no room for half-capacity operation. "There is pretty much no future without a market to which you can sell," Ryzhenkov said. "With the continuing disruptions, it's very difficult to make a steel business economically viable. [This] is typically a business where you have to have 90% plus capacity utilization to be profitable, even in normal times, and where you have to develop your markets with long-term commitments, and in today's circumstances, that's just not possible."

Why does Ryzhenkov stay?

Ryzhenkov comes from a family of steelmakers: his grandmother was a coal plant chemical engineer tied to steel production, and his mother, father and uncle all work in the sector. Asked why he persists despite the losses and the threat of further attacks, he pointed to the people who depend on the company — more than 35,000 employees and their families, plus 8,500 employees serving in the Ukrainian armed forces.

"Well, not the only choice. I mean, obviously, you can slam the door and walk out," he said. "But we have more than 35,000 people working for us with their families. We have 8,500 of our employees in the Ukrainian armed forces, which also rely on us. So, I mean, why would you slam the door if you can still try to do something to carry on? I just don't find a reason for myself to do that."

The outcome of the quota talks in Brussels — and the trajectory of Russian strikes on energy and transport infrastructure — will determine whether Ukrainian steelmaking has a market and a production base left to fight for.