Visa Sees U.S. Holiday Sales Up 4.5%, With Inflation Doing More Work

Visa expects U.S. holiday retail sales to rise 4.5% year over year in November and December, the strongest growth since 2021. That headline carries more inflation than volume: Visa’s Business and Economic Insights (VBEI) group projects only 1.1% growth after removing price increases, down from 1.3% last year.

The forecast appears in Visa’s 2026 Holiday Spending Outlook. It lands in a holiday season shaped by high inflation, rising living costs and expensive travel.

Where are shoppers putting their money?

Visa found that consumers put travel at the top of their holiday shopping lists, even though gifts will absorb the bulk of their spending. The gap between what shoppers want and what they will buy is substantial.

Visa’s survey results lay out the split between preference and action. The figures do not form a complete budget breakdown, and the report does not state whether the categories overlap.

• More than half of surveyed shoppers say they prefer travel and live events.
• Only 15% say they are actually pulling the trigger on experiences.
• Another 27% plan to buy physical gifts.

Visa’s economists argue that unspent travel dollars could flow into merchandise. They view that shift as good news for retailers, though the report does not quantify the potential transfer.

Takeaway: Americans still want holiday experiences, but their spending plans favor gifts over tickets, trips and other experiences.

Who is traveling despite high costs?

Visa linked restrained travel to high costs, worsened by soaring fuel prices and the war in Iran. According to the company, many Americans will stay closer to home for the holidays.

The report identifies households earning $200,000 and up as the exception to that pattern. In September, those households increased both holiday airfare bookings and spending.

Airfare bookings rose 29%, while spending increased 38%, Visa said. By contrast, roughly 33% of consumers earning under $100,000 plan to switch to lower-cost brands or stores for holiday gifts.

Visa presents the switch as evidence that lower-income shoppers are adapting to higher prices. The findings do not quantify middle-income behavior or show whether affluent households bought more trips, paid higher fares, or both.

Takeaway: Travel demand looks strongest at the top of the income distribution, while lower-income shoppers protect gift budgets by trading down.

What does the $777 average show?

Consumers plan to spend an average of $777 on gifts this holiday season, according to Visa. Visa says that figure signals continued willingness to spend as shoppers hunt for value amid inflation.

Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist at Visa, said in a statement: “Consumers are heading into the holidays with the capacity and willingness to spend, even if they’re being thoughtful about where those dollars go. Income growth continues to provide an important foundation for spending, and while higher prices remain part of the picture, we expect another healthy holiday season.”

That supports Visa’s argument that income growth remains a foundation for holiday spending. It does not show how evenly the average is distributed or how much room consumers have after essentials.

Visa based the survey on 4,660 U.S. adults ages 18 and older. The reported figures do not include a median, spending bands, survey dates, weighting details or a margin of error.

Takeaway: The $777 average indicates resilient spending intentions, not a uniform ability to absorb higher prices.

What should retailers expect?

Visa’s economists see redirected travel money as a potential support for merchandise sales. For retailers, the near-term opportunity is broader gift demand, even if consumers continue to trade down.

Travel should not be read as a broad rebound: more than half of surveyed shoppers want it, but only 15% say they are pulling the trigger on experiences. Lower-income shoppers are explicitly choosing lower-cost brands and stores.

The 4.5% nominal forecast also needs the inflation caveat. Excluding price increases, Visa expects 1.1% sales growth, weaker than 1.3% last year, while average gift spending reaches $777.

Visa’s forecast points to more spending dollars for merchants but only modest volume growth. The forward test is whether gift demand can sustain sales after inflation rather than merely lift prices again.

Takeaway: Merchants can expect more spending dollars, but the forecast offers only modest growth after inflation and a clear test of underlying demand.