Vodafone Lifts Guidance Despite €3.6 Billion Half-Year Loss

Vodafone raised its full-year guidance even after booking a first-half loss of €3.6 billion, driven by a €4.85 billion impairment charge on its German business. Ion Jauregui, analyst at ActivTrades, said growth in Africa and operational improvements elsewhere offset part of the weakness in the carrier's biggest European market.

The group now expects adjusted EBITDAaL of €13.2 billion to €13.4 billion for the year. That compares with a previous range of €13.0 billion to €13.3 billion. Vodafone also lifted its adjusted free cash flow forecast to €2.8 billion-€3.0 billion.

Revenue tells a different story than the headline loss. Group revenue for the half rose 11.4% to €21.9 billion. Africa again led the pack, growing 13.4%. The company also announced another 2,300 job cuts in Germany.

Why does Germany still hurt?

The impairment reflects the ongoing pressure on the German business, though it does not represent an equivalent cash outflow, according to ActivTrades' Jauregui. The market's key takeaway is that Vodafone managed to raise guidance despite the writedown.

The improved outlook suggests cash generation and the performance of the rest of the group are absorbing part of the German weakness. Jauregui calls the fundamental picture mixed. Germany remains the main source of risk, but revenue growth and the higher forecasts soften the blow of the accounting loss.

Where does the stock stand technically?

The chart hasn't confirmed a turnaround yet. Vodafone trades around 118 pence, sitting in a zone of balance between its main moving averages on the daily chart.

• Price holds near the 100-day moving average at roughly 118.1 pence and stays above the 200-day average near 115.3 pence.
• The 50-day moving average, around 122.4 pence, remains the main resistance.
• The daily RSI sits near 48, while the MACD stays negative, though its histogram has started to improve.

The hourly chart looks more constructive. The price has reclaimed the 50-hour and 100-hour moving averages and is now testing the 200-hour average near 118.1 pence. The hourly RSI reads about 61, and the MACD has flashed a positive signal — a sign of improving short-term momentum.

What levels matter next?

First resistance sits in the 118.5-119 pence zone. A clear break there could open the path toward 120-122.5 pence, Jauregui noted. On the downside, initial support holds at 117-117.5 pence, while the 115-116 area remains the most important technical reference.

The setup splits into two halves. Fundamentals outside Germany are improving; the chart has yet to confirm a breakout. As long as the price holds above 115 pence, the recovery structure stays intact, according to ActivTrades. A move above 122-123 pence would reinforce the bullish scenario more clearly — and give investors the confirmation the German numbers still withhold.