Washington Wildfire Losses Near $1 Billion, Far Above Early Estimates

Insured losses from Washington's summer wildfires are approaching $1 billion across roughly 3,500 claims, blowing past the $600 million projection insurers and regulators made in September. That makes it the most expensive wildfire event in state history, per the state's tally covering all Washington fires from June to the present.

Most of the damage traces to the Spokane Complex Fire — the Old Trails, Fairview and Autumn Lane fires that ignited Aug. 1, grew past 10,000 acres, burned for 19 days and forced evacuations of more than 65,000 people. The complex destroyed roughly 900 structures. Property data provider Cotality counted 5,256 damaged properties, 96% of them single-family homes.

The Old Trails Fire alone accounts for an estimated $665 million in insured losses, the largest single share. It destroyed 615 structures, mostly in the wildland-urban interface.

What did researchers find in the burn zone?

The Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) sent researchers into the Old Trails burn area in Spokane County. They documented damage and fire-spread pathways at 132 structures across nine areas, focusing on structure spacing, connective fuels and building components under fire weather conditions.

The core finding: fire-resistant materials alone didn't save homes. Connective fuels — combustible fences, mulch, landscaping — created pathways for flames and embers to reach buildings.

Aerial imagery taken just six hours after ignition showed multiple fires burning simultaneously. That stretched firefighting resources so thin that crews couldn't protect every threatened structure.

"As a result, structures with vulnerabilities to ember exposure, including combustible roofs, unmitigated vents, or fuels directly adjacent to the home, remain(ed) at risk of ignition," the IBHS report states. "This scenario led to significant losses within the perimeter, even after the advancing fire front had slowed."

In one documented case, burning mulch ignited combustible components beneath noncombustible lap siding where a wall met the foundation. Another exposure involving a stone-veneer wall didn't ignite — possibly because flashing at the wall's base protected the combustible material underneath. Embers also likely ignited a fence at its connection to a house, setting a vinyl-framed double-pane window alight; firefighters stopped the spread. Wood fences carried flames between properties, while vinyl fences tended to just melt.

Decks with combustible material beneath them were vulnerable too. The report shows embers igniting ground cover around wooden deck supports, letting flames climb to the walking surface. Concrete bases under deck supports could cut that risk.

Could it have been worse?

IBHS compared the Old Trails Fire with the January 2025 Eaton Fire in Los Angeles. In the Eaton Fire, 58% of structures had another building within 10 feet. In Old Trails, only 13.8% were spaced that closely. Researchers concluded the Washington fire would have been worse with greater housing density.

David Forte, a senior policy adviser with the Washington Office of the Insurance Commissioner, said the findings reinforced one homespun hazard: "the Pacific Northwest love of mulch around the house." Smoldering mulch hides easily under smoke and darkness.

"They did a terrific job saving lives. They did a terrific job saving property. But there were times where they thought a neighborhood was safe, they left to the next hot spot only to come back and find that a home was ignited due the mulch," Forte said. "And so, for us, it reinforces the importance of noncombustible 0- to 5-feet around the house."

RVs posed a second problem. "Once the RV ignited, there really is no defense for that house," Forte said. "The amount of heat that the RV produced, the structure couldn't withstand that at all."

What does this mean for Washington's insurance market?

The losses land on a market that had just cooled off. Homeowners claims costs statewide hit $2.19 billion in 2024, then fell to roughly $1.67 billion in 2025. Cancellations and nonrenewals dropped from 34,573 in 2024 to 29,081 in 2025.

"So, all these indicators to us were, OK we've kind of withstood the hard market, we're entering back into a price competitive market for our homeowners, and then Aug. 1 happens, and we're not quite sure how the industry is going to respond to this," Forte said. "And here we are in 2026 and they're anticipating $980 million of wildfire loss. That's a concerning number for us."

For context, the 2023 Gray and Oregon Road fires in the same county cost insurers $240 million — a quarter of the current bill. Forte said the OIC is in a "wait and see pattern with how insurers react."

The state is now pushing IBHS Wildfire Prepared Home standards as the fix. Forte called them "the pathway to a healthy insurance market in these high-risk areas." His bottom line for homeowners and builders: "we can't insurance our way out of this. We need to figure out how to mitigate our way out of this."