Weller Backs December Hike as CPI Test Looms Over Markets

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he is "leaning toward" a December rate hike, and futures opened mixed ahead of October CPI data that economists expect to show 3.9% year-over-year headline inflation, up from 3.7% prior. Core CPI is forecast at 2.8% versus 2.6% previously, according to the hi2morrow team's November 10 research note on the Invesco QQQ Trust (BATS: QQQ). QQQ traded down 2.06 points, or 0.30%, pre-market, while SPY gained 0.97 points, or 0.13%.

Weller went further in remarks reported by CNBC. If inflation runs hotter than expected, "a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered," he said, adding that "Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk." Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee offered a different warning: the AI data-center build-out is "starting to look more just like old-fashioned demand overheating."

What does the CPI report bring?

Wednesday's calendar is dense. ADP weekly employment change lands at 08:15, CPI at 08:30, and Fed speeches follow from Logan (09:35), Bowman and Schmid (13:30), and Bowman again at 18:30. The Treasury auctions 10-year notes at 13:00. Total household debt, the WASDE report and the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook all arrive around midday.

Oil extended its slide after President Trump said fresh strikes on Iran are "highly unlikely" and that "Iran militarily is effectively over." Brent fell about 2% to roughly $90.7; WTI dropped 1.7% to around $85.4. Shell and BP traded lower, alongside Occidental Petroleum. Gold slipped 0.8% to about $4,080, dragging Newmont down. Bitcoin traded near $74,300, down 1.3%, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 4.89%.

Which stocks gapped up?

Earnings reactions lifted a wide list:

• Sanmina (SANM), Quantum (QMCO), AAON, Harrow (HROW), Senseonics (SENS)
• Babcock & Wilcox (BW), Onto Innovation (ONTO), Venture Global (VG)
• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), Embraer (EMBJ), Take-Two (TTWO), Credicorp (BAP)

Sanmina issued its first FY27 outlook: revenue of $17.5–19.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $15.50–17.50, above its earlier "$16 billion-plus" framing. Securitize (SECZ) reported revenue up 29% quarter-over-quarter to $18.61 million in its first quarter as a public company and agreed to acquire River One. Venture Global raised the midpoint of its FY2026 volume and adjusted EBITDA guidance after a record Q3 and plans an off-grid AI utility business for data centers.

Take-Two reiterated the November 19 release of GTA VI. Its CEO told CNBC preorders have hit "unprecedented levels." ASE Technology rose on its October revenue report, while TSMC's October sales jumped 59.7% year-over-year to NT$586.89 billion. European banks led a 0.9% gain in the Stoxx 600, lifting Deutsche Bank, Mizuho, UBS, Santander, HSBC and Bank of America.

Which stocks gapped down?

The losers' list was longer:

• Janus International (JBI), Digital Turbine (APPS), Groupon (GRPN), WhiteFiber (WYFI)
• On Holding (ONON), JBS, Rocket Lab (RKLB), The Trade Desk (TTD), Sea (SE)
• AST SpaceMobile (ASTS), TransDigm (TDG), Equinox Gold (EQX), Hims & Hers (HIMS), Vodafone (VOD), Occidental (OXY)

Rocket Lab posted a Q3 adjusted loss of $0.12 per share against $0.07 expected, despite record revenue of $268 million, up 73%, and a backlog of roughly $3.6 billion. GFL Environmental's special committee concluded its review of unsolicited take-private proposals, found them not in the company's best interests, and the board reaffirmed its strategy to remain public. On Holding fell as investors judged a tariff refund had flattered its Q3 profit beat, per Investing.com. JBS saw Q3 profit hit as China quotas overshadowed US beef improvement. Grab slid in sympathy with Sea after Sea's Q3 report.

Chip and memory names gave back part of Monday's rally ahead of CPI: Marvell, Intel, SK Hynix, Qualcomm, Sandisk, Lam Research, Western Digital, Seagate, KLA, Micron and Broadcom all traded lower.

What else moved?

Monday delivered the S&P 500's best day since April 8, up 2.35%, with the Nasdaq up 2.74% and the Dow adding roughly 1,100 points. The Kospi surged 4.39% as Korea Exchange triggered buy-side program curbs; the Nikkei rose 2.87% to 60,459.58. Infineon gained 4.8% after a record Q4 and guidance of about €20 billion in FY2027 revenue.

China's October exports rose 35.2% year-over-year and imports 41.6%, producing a $105.3 billion trade surplus — $1.04 trillion year to date. The Wall Street Journal reported Anthropic will seek a $1.3 trillion valuation in its IPO. Reuters reported SoftBank booked a $7 billion quarterly loss on a US data-center hit and financing costs. The New York Times reported ExxonMobil struck a preliminary deal to return to Venezuela. Nvidia and CEO Jensen Huang were sued over disclosures tied to the suspected Chinese spy; Trump said Huang told him "I had no idea that she was a spy."

CoreWeave, Petrobras and Alcon report after the close, giving traders one more earnings checkpoint before CPI sets the week's direction.