WTI crude loses 12.2% and breaks its rising trendline

By Daniel Okafor

How far did WTI fall?

WTI crude oil lost 12.2% over one week and closed at 90.35 on Friday, down from 102.94 a week earlier, according to Rizq-FX's TradingView chart analysis. The week's high was 102.75 on Monday. The low was 86.65 on Thursday. Wednesday closed at 88.05, while Thursday recovered to 91.19.

The path combined a steep fall from Monday's high with a partial late-week bounce. Even after that bounce, the Friday close remained below the trendline that frames the next move.

What changed at the trendline?

Rizq-FX's rising trendline connects the 4 August low at 75.11 with the 6 October low at 86.86 and ran near 93.20 on Monday. Wednesday's 88.05 close fell below it. Price has stayed beneath the line since. Rizq-FX now treats the trendline as a ceiling rather than support.

The distinction sets the market's immediate test: reclaiming the line would improve the structure, while remaining below it preserves the break. The break carries added weight because the line links two rising swing lows rather than marking a flat level.

The last swing low was 86.86 on 6 October. Thursday's wick reached 86.65, just beneath that low, but the close at 91.19 landed well back above it. That sequence leaves the support test unresolved. His chart structure still leaned slightly upward, though Rizq-FX said it was losing shape. One more daily close below 86.86 would end the upward structure.

How could CPI affect oil?

October U.S. CPI arrives Tuesday 10 November at 13:30 UTC, giving oil its next scheduled macro test after this 12.2% weekly decline. Rizq-FX said oil reacts less directly to CPI itself. The transmission runs through rates and the dollar: a hot reading can move both, and oil usually feels that effect after a week like this.

The CPI release therefore matters mainly as a catalyst for the next move, rather than through an immediate response to the inflation data. That indirect channel can still matter when chart support and resistance sit close together.

Which path comes next?

Rizq-FX ranked three paths for WTI, with sideways trading the most likely and a recovery the least likely in his framework.

• Sideways, most likely: Daily closes stay between 86.65 and 93.20.
• Lower, less likely: A daily close falls under 86.65. The next level is the 25 August low at 80.23.
• Recovery, least likely: A daily close returns above the trendline near 93.20. The next level is Tuesday's high at 98.82.

The range boundaries have distinct roles. A close above 93.20 would mark recovery, while a close below 86.65 would confirm the lower path. Between those levels, Rizq-FX saw little reason to act. His instruction was blunt: "Nothing to do in the middle. Let price come to the levels."

What does positioning add?

Rizq-FX also reported that fund positioning had been cutting longs for six consecutive weeks. The six-week adjustment extends the report's bearish context beyond the latest price move. It is a positioning signal, not a price trigger: the chart still specifies 86.65 and 93.20 as the decisive closing levels.

Positioning and chart structure therefore offer traders two separate checks on the direction of the market.

What remains unresolved?

His closing question captured the unresolved setup: "Was Thursday's dip a sweep of the low or the first step of a bigger drop?" The immediate test is whether price can hold 86.65. A close below opens 80.23; a close back above 93.20 puts 98.82 in view.

Tuesday's CPI release adds another possible catalyst for a break from that range. The analysis carried a not-financial-advice warning.

In Rizq-FX's framework, Tuesday's CPI reaction and the next close around 86.65 will clarify whether oil stays in the 86.65-93.20 range, breaks toward 80.23 or recovers toward 98.82.