Bitcoin Fell 9.9% in a Week When Nasdaq Rose 2.3%

Bitcoin closed Friday at $68,226, down 9.9% for the week, and slid to roughly $66,400 on Saturday — its lowest level since mid-August — while the Nasdaq Composite gained 2.3% and the S&P 500 posted its best week since early August. The two assets still moved in the same direction on four of five days, and the 30-session correlation sits at 0.67, down from 0.75 measured last week by market analyst XBTALGO on TradingView. So the link didn't break. What changed is the size of the moves — and that asymmetry is the real story for anyone trading this pair.

The numbers lay it out. Over the last 30 sessions, Bitcoin gained an average of 0.66% on Nasdaq up days (14 of them) but lost 1.87% on Nasdaq down days (16 of them). The Nasdaq's own averages were +1.02% and -1.36%. In the 30 sessions through Nov 6, the split was almost even: BTC at +0.71% / -1.37% versus +0.76% / -1.38% for the Nasdaq. Now Bitcoin takes more of the downside and less of the upside.

What does this week's data show?

This week alone, the pattern turned lopsided:

• Two Nasdaq up days: index up 2.17% on average, Bitcoin actually down 0.17%
• Three down days: Nasdaq off 0.68%, Bitcoin off 3.31% — nearly five times worse

That's not a macro story doing the damage. As XBTALGO puts it: "When an asset keeps the down days and misses the up days, the weakness is usually in its own demand, not in the macro link."

What's weighing on Bitcoin specifically?

Three forces hit BTC harder than equities. First, rates. October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month (core 0.3%), above forecasts. Fed funds futures now price roughly a 90% chance of another quarter-point hike at the Dec 8–9 meeting. The US 10-year yield climbed 28 basis points on the week to 5.14%. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Friday her bias is toward raising rates further.

Second, flows. US spot Bitcoin ETFs bled about $1.07 billion in net outflows this week, after $1.28 billion the week before, per Farside data. Friday marked the seventh straight session of outflows.

Third, leverage. More than $1 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated during Friday's drop, according to several trackers.

The rate math is worth a translation for practitioners: at a 5.14% risk-free 10-year yield, an asset with no cash flows has to offer that much in expected appreciation just to break even against Treasuries — a bar that gets higher every week the Fed stays hawkish.

What happens next week?

Two catalysts land on Nov 17: Nvidia earnings and US retail sales. For Bitcoin itself, the line in the sand is $70,000. A daily close back above it would ease the pressure, XBTALGO notes. Staying below keeps the mid-August lows near $64,000 in view — roughly another 4–5% of downside from Saturday's $66,400.

The methodology, per the source: daily close-to-close returns, BTCUSD (Bitstamp, 00:00 UTC close) matched to Nasdaq sessions, with weekend moves counted toward Monday. The analysis is market data, not investment advice.

The practical takeaway for traders: don't fade the correlation, but stop treating it as symmetric. Until ETF flows turn positive, Bitcoin is behaving like a high-beta proxy that's lost its beta on the way up.