Nasdaq-100 Falls 13% From Record High; 27,500 Becomes the Pivot

The Nasdaq 100, tracked by NQ futures, stood roughly 13% below its Oct. 6, 2026 record high at the Nov. 6 close, according to EdgeClear's TradingView analysis. By Nov. 2, the index had already slipped about 10.4% and entered correction territory.

EdgeClear linked the decline to doubts over whether heavy AI data-center and chip spending will produce adequate returns. On Nov. 5, the Nasdaq 100 fell 6.36%, its worst day since March 2020. The session erased an estimated $2.3 trillion in market value.

Bloomberg, as cited by EdgeClear, reported that the rout followed a Democratic sweep in the midterm elections. The result raised fears of tighter AI regulation. EdgeClear also said trend-following systematic funds amplified the selling, adding mechanical pressure to the catalyst.

How broad was the damage?

EdgeClear's weekly scorecard for the week ended Nov. 6 showed:

• Nasdaq Composite: down 3.37%.
• S&P 500: down 2.68%.
• Russell 2000: down 2.05%.
• Dow: down 0.94%.
• Invesco QQQ ETF: down almost 5%.
• QQQE, its equal-weighted counterpart: down about 3.7%.

The S&P 500 also fell 4.36% on Nov. 5 alone. EdgeClear said the wider loss in QQQ than QQQE showed how the market's largest companies drove the damage. The cap-weighted ETF absorbed the sharper decline as technology and other heavyweight constituents sold off.

Which macro events now threaten the rebound?

EdgeClear's Nov. 6 snapshot placed three macro forces behind the volatility:

• The October jobs report showed 165,000 new jobs, compared with roughly 59,000 expected. Unemployment stood at 4.1%.
• The federal funds rate remained at 3.75% to 4.00% after September's hike. CME FedWatch showed about a 77% chance of another quarter-point increase in December as of Nov. 6.
• Brent crude settled at $98.32 on Nov. 6, down more than 16% for the week. The decline reflected hopes for a US-Iran deal, although no agreement had been announced.

EdgeClear said these macro headlines added volatility. The next scheduled tests arrive with US CPI on Nov. 10 and Nvidia earnings after the close on Nov. 17. Those releases will sit beside December rate expectations and developing US-Iran diplomacy.

How did NQ break its trading range?

EdgeClear described the market as generally sideways from May through the end of October. Price rotated between 31,300, identified as Daily level 1, and 29,100, identified as Daily level 2.

The chart-based chronology then showed a series of decisive breaks:

• In the last week of July, NQ broke below the range and tested 27,500, or Daily level 3. That price was also the all-time high before the US-Iran war.
• Buyers quickly reclaimed 29,100, returning price to the consolidation range.
• On Oct. 30, the market broke below 29,100.
• Buyers failed to defend 27,500. A large selloff followed on Nov. 5, taking NQ below that level and down to 26,400, or Daily level 4.

EdgeClear now treats 27,500 and 26,400 as the key levels. His analysis describes NQ as moving from a long consolidation into a breakdown, with 27,500 separating a recovery attempt from further weakness toward 26,400.

What would keep the market in a neutral range?

EdgeClear's neutral scenario calls for two-way rotation between 27,500 and 26,400 as the market re-establishes value after the selloff. Mixed data could support that outcome. He identified an in-line October CPI report on Nov. 10, Nvidia results that meet expectations on Nov. 17, and continued US-Iran talks without a final agreement as possible conditions.

What would confirm a recovery?

EdgeClear's bullish scenario requires buyers to reclaim 27,500 and establish prices above it. That could open a move toward 28,350, described as the developing volume point of control, or VPOC. If sellers do not defend 28,350, the next possible level is 29,100.

A cooler-than-expected CPI report combined with a confirmed US-Iran agreement could create the trigger. EdgeClear said lower oil prices and reduced expectations for a December rate hike would improve that setup.

What would extend the selloff?

EdgeClear's bearish scenario starts if buyers fail to defend and hold bids at 26,400. A further decline toward 25,000, or Daily level 5, could follow. He expects buyers to respond at that level.

A hotter-than-expected CPI report followed by a cautious Nvidia outlook could trigger that path. EdgeClear said the combination would raise December rate-hike odds and renew doubts about returns from AI spending.

What risks matter over the next two weeks?

EdgeClear said the coming event cluster includes CPI, Nvidia earnings, Fed rate-hike expectations, US-Iran diplomacy and AI-regulation headlines. The interaction matters because the index faces a technical breakdown while investors reassess both corporate AI spending and the policy backdrop.

EdgeClear's risk notice says past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. He warns that futures involve substantial risk of loss and are not appropriate for all investors. The analysis is for informational and educational purposes, not trading advice or a solicitation to buy or sell futures.

EdgeClear's setup makes the next two weeks a chain of price tests: 27,500 against 26,400 on the downside, 28,350 and 29,100 on a recovery, and 25,000 if bids fail. CPI, Nvidia, rate expectations and US-Iran diplomacy will determine which path develops.