Britain Pays Belgium to Keep Gas Flowing This Winter

By Nathan Brooks

British households will pay an extra 10p a month on their energy bills to keep a Belgian pipeline ready to pump gas into Britain in an emergency. The deal, struck with Interconnector Limited, the Belgian owner of the pipeline, buys what Ofgem calls cover for a "low-probability but high-impact stress event" this winter.

The timing isn't accidental. It follows the overdue approval of the Jackdaw field in the North Sea, which offered a brief sense of relief on domestic supply. But Britain still imports almost 60% of its gas, and the stuff has to come from somewhere. Hence the arrangement to maintain capacity through the Belgian link into the winter of 2026/27.

What exactly is Britain insuring against?

The scenario Ofgem has in mind is genuinely stressful: a critical piece of infrastructure — say, the two LNG import terminals at Milford Haven — knocked out during a prolonged cold snap when demand is very high. The "high-impact" part matters most here. We're talking about having enough gas to run gas-fired power stations at full pelt if necessary to keep the lights on. You don't take chances with that.

The payment covers the cost of keeping compressors ready to shove big volumes of gas to Britain in a hurry. Without the arrangement, Interconnector Limited had already warned it would cut capacity — in part because the big pipe saw little use last year. If you're an energy buyer, that's the practical detail: idle infrastructure gets decommissioned unless someone pays to keep it warm.

Is it decent value?

On the comforting side, yes. As insurance policies go, £1.19 a household a year is not much. That's roughly the price of a loaf of bread spread over twelve months, in exchange for supply insurance through a full winter.

The uncomfortable side is what the deal reveals. Ofgem's own document on the arrangement says it was "the only currently available intervention identified that both addresses the immediate security of supply position for winter 2026/27 and provides continuing security of supply benefits over the following four years." In plain terms: it was Belgium — plus any future deal on the Dutch pipeline — or nothing.

And Ofgem explicitly warns the Belgian shuffle is no cure-all. "The agreement does not remove the need for further measures led by government that are likely to be required to support security of supply and wider gas system resilience over the medium and longer term," the regulator says.

What does this change for the government?

It should read that line as a heavy hint to get moving. The open questions are concrete: do we need more gas storage, more LNG terminals, or both? And post-Jackdaw, what's a realistic appraisal of how much gas will actually come from the North Sea?

The record so far isn't encouraging. It's now almost a year since the National Energy System Operator (Neso) warned of an "emerging risk to gas supply security" in 2030. The government promised to "do whatever it takes" to avert a crunch. An interim response arrived in August, but with no timetable for choosing what kit or arrangements are needed, and by when. The final response isn't due until next year.

What National Gas says

The "winter outlook" report from National Gas, published on Friday, adds nuance. With the Belgian deal in place, this winter's outlook is positive — good news. But annual consumption may drift down slightly while demand peaks remain as high as ever, driven by gas-fired power generation whenever renewables output is low. Shrinking annual volumes don't shrink the winter spike.

Like Ofgem, National Gas says "continued progress on government plans to reform security of supply arrangements will be vital to address enduring challenges in the years ahead." That's becoming a theme.

The storage question nobody has answered

The obvious answer is more gas storage to fix Britain's skimpy current levels. The options on the table:

• Centrica's Rough facility in the North Sea, currently due to close next spring
• The Bains development, led by dCarbonX off the north-west coast of England, which may happen anyway
• More onshore salt caverns
• German-style forward-buying deals on LNG
• Any combination of the above

Something has to happen soon. None of this infrastructure gets built quickly, and that potential 2030 crunch is getting closer by the month. The government certainly can't agonise for as long as it did over Jackdaw. Eleventh-hour deals with Belgium keep the lights on for a winter — they don't fix Britain's gas security headache.