Burnham Predicts 'Win-Win' EU Deal Worth 0.4% of GDP Within Days

A UK-EU trade deal worth 0.4% of British GDP hangs on seven days of negotiations that Andy Burnham says will involve "some long nights ahead." The prime minister was speaking at the European Political Community summit in Dublin, ahead of next week's EU-UK bilateral summit in Brussels.

Burnham said he believes a "win-win" agreement is within reach — one "more like the Brexit that people thought they were voting for in 2016." He said: "I believe there is a good deal to be done that could be a win-win for Britain and Europe."

What's on the table at the summit?

The two sides hope to sign agreements on:

• Food and drink, easing post-Brexit red tape — the deal Burnham says will add 0.4% to British GDP
• Emissions trading
• A youth mobility scheme

One item remains unresolved: tuition fees for European students. The EU has said the food and drink deal and the emissions-trading agreement may not enter into force without an agreement forcing European students to pay domestic rates.

Burnham acknowledged the package approach but declined to say whether he accepted the link. "I'm going to be fighting hard for these benefits for Britain in the next seven days … They will make a real difference," he said. "If I can do anything to address the cost of living crisis, I should be doing it."

Why does the reset matter now?

Burnham framed the negotiation as a correction to the Brexit Britain actually got. "We ended up with a far harder Brexit, I think, than people thought they were getting when they went to the polls," he said. The reset, he added, would test whether Britain can "take a step back to closer working relationships with Europe."

He is expected to make the EU reset the centrepiece of his white-tie speech at the lord mayor's banquet on Monday night, though the address will range across foreign policy challenges. No 10 sources said the speech will focus on the upcoming Brussels summit and look ahead to the next stage in 2027 — not on what a permanent close relationship might look like.

What comes after Brussels?

Officials at the summit will also set the agenda for the next round of the reset, expected to centre on a joint migration pact. Other targets include:

• Law enforcement and border collaboration
• Visas for touring artists
• Mutual recognition of qualifications

Ministry of Justice officials are meanwhile trying to water down an EU ultimatum on halting the deportation of foreign national offenders. "This is the classic wheeze that the EU always pulls at the last minute of negotiations," one Whitehall source said.

The hardest fight may be over access to Made in Europe, legislation that could lock British firms out of continental supply chains and public contracts if no deal is reached. The EU has long ruled out a Made in Europe deal at this summit, because it has yet to finalise its own position. Negotiations could prove difficult even if the UK offers a concession on tuition fees in exchange for inclusion in the legislation.

What does migration cooperation look like?

The joint communique for 2027 is expected to call for strengthened efforts between the UK and the member states most exposed to the small boats crisis in the Channel. That means building on the EU's Channel action plan, in place since June this year, and possibly creating a wider bespoke EU-UK migration framework.

The UK is believed to be pushing for access to Eurodac, the database carrying asylum seekers' fingerprints, and to the Schengen Information System (SIS), which records fugitives, missing people and stolen goods. Britain was the third biggest user of SIS before it lost access through Brexit.

With tuition fees, Made in Europe and database access all unresolved, the next week of last-minute bargaining will determine whether Burnham's promised win-win materialises — or whether the GDP gains stay on the table.