Cable Returns Above $1.34 Ahead of U.S. Inflation and U.K. GDP

Michael Stark, writing under the TradingView account Michael_Stark_Exness, put cable back above $1.34 on Monday, 9 November. He said a surprisingly good U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on 6 November had produced cable’s worst daily performance since 19 September.

The rebound was robust, Stark said, as prospects appeared to improve for further negotiations in the Gulf. He also said traders anticipated possibly stronger British preliminary GDP for the third quarter on 12 November.

Stark flagged immediate event risk. He expected American inflation on Tuesday, 10 November, might be higher, making the release a potential source of short-term volatility in either direction.

What changed after the payrolls shock?

Stark said the 6 November retracement took cable out of overbought territory on the slow stochastic. For Stark, that reset left room for recovery without changing the broader sideways pattern.

For Stark, the combination of a payroll-driven selloff, a reset from overbought conditions and the four-hour uptrend pointed to recovery rather than a durable breakdown.

Stark said buying volume had yet to recover as of Monday’s London session. Price had nevertheless returned above $1.34, which he described as a robust rebound.

Which levels matter now?

Stark set $1.35 as the first nearby target. He wrote: “$1.35 seems like an obvious target in the short term as the intraday high from the beginning of November but further ahead $1.365 is a confirmed resistance based on interactions in May and August.”

On the support side, Stark identified a golden cross, with the 20-day simple moving average above the 50-day on Bands. He said the cross could establish a current value area around $1.335 as dynamic support.

For the medium term, he placed the main area of demand at $1.32.

Stark’s map connected the technical signals into a sequence: $1.335 as dynamic support, $1.35 as the immediate target, $1.365 as resistance and $1.32 as demand.

What could break the range?

The broader trend remains sideways, Stark said, because the pair has not produced more than three new highs or lows recently. Stark identified an upward trend on the four-hour timeframe. In his framework, the larger range and shorter-term trend therefore point in different directions.

Stark expected relatively lower volatility during the run-up to American inflation, but a surprise Tuesday release, especially in the annual headline figure, could still create short-term opportunities in either direction.

Under his setup, that two-way possibility depended on appropriate spreads and stop levels. His analysis offered directional levels, but no probability for either outcome and no numerical forecast for inflation, GDP or cable.

How much can Gulf negotiations matter?

Stark said the robust Monday recovery appeared to reflect the possibility of further negotiations in the Gulf. He did not identify a negotiating party, schedule or agreement. For Stark, the catalyst remained conditional rather than a settled policy outcome.

British preliminary GDP for the third quarter, due 12 November, supplied the other stated focus. Stark said traders anticipated it might be stronger.

Stark also treated American inflation on 10 November as the nearer event risk, with potential to alter the pound-dollar path before the GDP release.

Stark framed the coming sequence as conditional: Gulf negotiations could support the rebound, preliminary GDP could affect expectations, and U.S. inflation could alter volatility and trading opportunities.

Stark’s technical map offered potential paths rather than a single forecast. The inflation print and GDP data sat at the center of his near-term framework.

Under his framework, a move through $1.35 would put confirmed resistance at $1.365 into focus, while a loss of $1.335 would leave $1.32 as the next main area of demand.

Stark also placed a clear boundary around the analysis: “This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.”

Following Stark’s setup, the 10 November inflation and 12 November GDP releases will test $1.35 and $1.365, while buying volume remains the missing confirmation for the four-hour uptrend above $1.335.