CF Industries’ EBITDA Rises 25% as Nitrogen Market Stays Tight

By Amara Osei

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) generated $833 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q3, up 25% year over year, as revenue rose 12% to $1.86 billion, according to FreedomHolding’s research. FreedomHolding’s November 9, 2026 analysis used a roughly $120.04 pre-market price and a $118.00 research entry price. Its trading terms were:

• Rating: Buy
• Price target: $134.00
• Potential upside: Approximately 11.6% from $120.04
• Stop-loss: $108.00
• Risk: High
• Investment horizon: Approximately two months

What supports CF’s resilient margins?

FreedomHolding describes CF Industries as a major nitrogen-fertilizer producer with two earnings advantages: relatively low North American natural-gas costs and elevated global ammonia and urea prices. Natural gas serves as the principal feedstock for ammonia production, according to the research.

CF’s average natural-gas cost was $2.88 per MMBtu in Q3, while European producers faced substantially higher energy costs. CF Industries management said European producers had about 37% of ammonia capacity offline or running at reduced utilization in October. FreedomHolding said this mix gave CF lower production costs while constrained global supply supported fertilizer selling prices.

Nine-month EBITDA reached $3.01 billion, above management’s $2.9 billion estimate for mid-cycle full-year earnings. Available ammonia capacity operated at 97% utilization, and trailing-12-month free cash flow reached $2.03 billion, the research said.

How tight is the global nitrogen market?

FreedomHolding expects the global nitrogen-fertilizer market to remain “structurally tight” at least through the first half of 2027. Management estimates that the military conflict in the Middle East has removed approximately 9 million tonnes of urea supply from the global market since it began.

Management said Gulf exports remain below normal levels, European production stays constrained by high gas costs, and supply disruptions persist in Russia and the Black Sea region. Chinese exports have risen, yet global nitrogen inventories remain low, management said.

Management expects stronger farmer purchasing ahead of spring planting and continued favorable nitrogen pricing during the first half of 2027. FreedomHolding’s forecast depends on that purchasing activity arriving before inventories rebuild and disrupted production returns.

What can the Yazoo City restart deliver?

Part of CF’s Mississippi complex has remained offline since an accident in November 2025. The outage creates additional fixed costs and forces CF to buy some ammonia from third parties, according to FreedomHolding.

Management plans a phased restart toward the end of the first half of 2027. The research expects the restored facility to increase available production, reduce nonproductive costs and support EBITDA growth without requiring construction of a new plant.

What do Blue Point One and buybacks add?

The research says CF began construction of the $3.7 billion Blue Point One project in Louisiana in August 2026. CF owns a 40% stake alongside JERA and Mitsui, and the companies expect low-carbon ammonia production to begin in 2029.

FreedomHolding estimates that Blue Point One and carbon-capture projects could increase CF’s mid-cycle EBITDA by approximately $400 million to $3.3 billion by 2030. The estimate adds longer-term value beyond the projected Yazoo City recovery.

Management indicated that the autumn ammonia program could be “one of the largest in the past decade.” Q3 UAN sales approached 2 million tonnes, the highest quarterly volume of the current decade, according to the research.

CF repurchased $367 million of shares in Q3, and its share count fell approximately 6% over the previous 12 months, the research said. FreedomHolding considers CF attractively valued relative to Mosaic.

The research argues that the market does not fully reflect CF’s resilient margins, potential production recovery in 2027 and strong conversion of EBITDA into free cash flow. FreedomHolding’s thesis now turns on stronger farmer buying before spring planting, sustained nitrogen pricing through the first half of 2027 and execution of Yazoo’s phased restart. Those milestones will test whether CF can support the $134.00 target despite the research’s high-risk rating and $108.00 stop-loss.