China Now Supports More Over-65s Than Children Under 15

China now counts more people aged 65 and over than children under 15 — 223 million elderly against roughly 213 million children — a first in the country's history that sharpens the fiscal squeeze on the world's second-largest economy.

The old-age dependency ratio, which measures people 65 and older as a share of the working-age population, rose to 23.1% last year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics and reported by Yicai. That figure overtook the child dependency ratio of 22% for the first time. In plain terms, for every 100 working-age Chinese, there are now more retirees to support than children to raise.

The milestone lands on an economy already shrinking at the base. China's population fell for a fourth consecutive year in 2025, dropping by 3.4 million people to 1.405 billion. The birth rate slid to 5.63 births per 1,000 people, its lowest level since the People's Republic was founded in 1949.

What does the shift cost?

The burden lands hardest on state finances. "The costs of an ageing population fall more heavily on pensions, healthcare and long-term care," said Stuart Gietel-Basten, a professor of social science and public policy at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology.

The warning signs are not new. The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences cautioned in 2019 that China's state pension fund risks running out of money by 2035 — roughly a decade from now.

Yet the ratio itself may be the wrong thing to watch. "What matters most for China's economy is not the ratio itself but how many people work, how productive they are, and how long they stay healthy," Gietel-Basten said. His caveat matters: a smaller workforce must fund pensions and care for a population aging faster than those of most developed economies.

Why are births still falling?

The decline took decades to build. Rapid urbanization and the one-child policy, enforced from 1980 to 2015, pushed the birth rate down over generations. Compliant families received financial incentives; rule-breakers faced fines.

Beijing reversed course — allowing two children in 2016, then three in 2021, and scrapping the penalties. Births kept falling. Many couples cite the high cost of housing, education and childcare as reasons not to have children, a pattern mirrored across East Asia where baby bonuses have largely failed.

The policy response now runs on two tracks. Last year China announced a subsidy of 3,600 yuan ($540) a year for each child under three — about $45 a month per child, a sum critics may weigh against the cost of raising one. The government is also gradually raising the retirement age: to 63 for men, 58 for women in white-collar jobs, and 55 for women in blue-collar jobs.

Where is the upside?

Aging consumers are becoming a market. Beijing expects the "silver economy" — goods and services built for older consumers — to grow to 30 trillion yuan ($4.5 trillion) by 2035. That projection outpaces most countries' entire GDP, though how much of it materializes depends on household spending power.

The longer-term fix, researchers argue, is productivity. "Looking ahead, as China's workforce continues to shrink and its population ages, investing more in education and training, along with using new technologies such as artificial intelligence and automation, will become increasingly important to help workers produce more and keep China's economy growing," said Xiujian Peng, a senior research fellow at Victoria University's Center of Policy Studies.

That is a promise with a condition attached: automation and training must offset a workforce that is shrinking every year. The 2035 pension deadline gives Beijing roughly ten years to prove they can.