Mongolia Loses $300 Million in Copper Exports as China Border Slows

Mongolia has lost roughly $300 million in copper export revenue in two weeks, and the bill could climb to $1.2 billion by the end of the year if border restrictions at China's Ganqimaodu Border Port persist, local media reported Wednesday.

The hit comes from Oyu Tolgoi, one of the world's largest copper mines. Its operator, Oyu Tolgoi LLC, said Thursday that exports of copper concentrate to China have fallen by about 70% in the past two weeks. Truck convoys carrying concentrate across the border have dropped from the usual 12 to 13 per day to around four.

The restrictions affect vehicles crossing at Ganqimaodu, the Chinese port adjacent to Mongolia's Gashuunsukhait Border Port. Oyu Tolgoi LLC did not confirm the reported loss figures in a statement to The Associated Press on Thursday.

What's behind the slowdown?

Mongolian border officials attribute the bottleneck to infrastructure and technology upgrades on the Chinese side. In August, Chinese authorities introduced an in-vehicle facial recognition system for truck drivers crossing the border. Installation and maintenance work has cut border processing capacity, according to the Mongolian border authorities.

Authorities in China's Inner Mongolia region did not immediately answer questions from the AP.

The timeline keeps slipping. The work was originally due to end by late September, according to Mongolian news reports. Mongolia's government said the Chinese embassy in Ulaanbaatar has now informed it that the upgrades may continue until the end of December.

That three-month extension is what turns a $300 million problem into a potential $1.2 billion one.

How is Mongolia responding?

Finance Minister Mendsaikhan Zagdjav said some ministers were instructed during a Cabinet meeting to visit the border crossing and meet with Chinese authorities, according to local news reports.

Delgersaikhan Borkhuu, minister of Road and Transport, said all transport routes on the Mongolian side remain open and the government was not aware of any political reasons behind the restrictions.

How exposed is Mongolia's economy?

The copper sector has become an increasingly important contributor to national export revenues. During the first nine months of 2026, copper concentrate exports reportedly reached 2 million tons.

Coal is feeling the squeeze too. The number of vehicles crossing through Gashuunsukhait has fallen to just over 1,000 a day from 1,300, border authorities said.

The stakes are structural, not cyclical. Mongolia's economy relies heavily on mining, which accounts for roughly a quarter of its GDP. The country holds abundant mineral resources — coal, copper, gold, uranium and fluorspar — and is particularly sensitive to disruptions in cross-border trade and commodity price swings.

Last year, coal and copper concentrates together accounted for 82.3% of Mongolia's merchandise exports. Some 89.4% of total exports went to China. Mongolia was also China's leading supplier of imported coking coal, covering approximately 51% of Chinese coking coal imports in 2025.

The exposure runs in one direction: Mongolia is a major supplier of coal and copper to China, the world's largest consumer of both commodities.

The takeaway in plain words: a facial recognition rollout at one Chinese border post has shaved 70% off a top copper mine's exports, and every month of delay costs Ulaanbaatar hundreds of millions it cannot easily replace.