Cop31 in Antalya: Australia Presides, Trump Stays Home, Saudi Obstructs

Australia will run the Cop31 negotiations in the Turkish city of Antalya, but its prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is unlikely to stay long — a fitting symbol, according to observers, of a half-hearted host.

Hosting Cop was a pledge Albanese made in 2021 while still in opposition. Arcane bidding rules forced Australia to wait its turn, and an angry row with Turkey followed. The compromise gives Australia overall control of the negotiations while Turkey hosts them in Antalya. The bitter taste lingers: Australia's media coverage has been far quieter than that of previous host countries.

Climate and energy minister Chris Bowen will take daily charge. Because energy supply also falls under his portfolio, he has had to boost fossil fuels while insisting on a clean energy transition. Australia does have a positive story: it remains a major fossil fuel exporter, yet solar power has expanded so far that consumers are sometimes offered free electricity.

What is Turkey's role?

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who showed little interest in climate before bidding to host, controls the action agenda — a programme of voluntary initiatives — through environment minister Murat Kurum. Erdoğan has used it to advance a cause championed by his wife, Emine Erdoğan: an end to "throwaway culture" and recycling instead of landfill. The caveat is hard to miss: Turkey still operates sites that leak vast quantities of methane.

Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, is understood to be among the advisers behind this year's emphasis on electrification — displacing fossil fuels with electricity for heating, transport and industry. That shift could halve the amount of energy the world needs.

Cop has now been held four times in five years in the same broad region — Egypt, the UAE, Azerbaijan and now Turkey — giving the Arab group and its fossil fuel lobbyists an outsize role.

Who else is coming?

Brazil's recently re-elected president, Lula da Silva, will make Cop31 his first trip abroad after winning a historic fourth term. He brings two roadmaps: one for transitioning away from fossil fuels, another for halting and reversing deforestation. Both are non-binding, contain no deadlines and impose no firm requirements — they show steps governments can take, not steps they must.

China's president Xi Jinping will not attend, yet China matters more than most delegations present. It is the world's second biggest economy and the biggest emitter, producing nearly a third of global annual carbon output after 25 years of fossil-fuelled growth. Its renewable investment is simultaneously reshaping the global energy business. Xi's envoys know petrostates — Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE — are allies, but low-carbon countries matter more as customers.

India withdrew its bid to host Cop33 in 2028 in April, without explanation. It holds the world's third largest installed renewable capacity after China and the US, yet coal still supplies about 70% of its electricity and has close links to prime minister Narendra Modi. Environment minister Bhupender Yadav, who leads India's delegations, enjoys a mutually supportive relationship with the UK's Ed Miliband and a reputation as a forward thinker.

Is the US even present?

No US delegation is expected. Donald Trump's attention has been fixed on the midterm elections, and his withdrawal from the UN framework convention on climate change will soon bar participation altogether. Trump's shadow already loomed over Cop30 in Belem, where he began dismantling the US renewable sector and boosting fossil fuels, setting the country on course to increase emissions again after decades of decline. His administration's unpopularity and a drought- and fire-filled summer have, however, strengthened pro-climate Democrats in Congress and statehouses — some may attend.

What about the UK and Europe?

Prime minister Andy Burnham attends Cop for the first time after a mixed record: criticised for staying silent during this summer's record heatwaves, he then affirmed the UK's 2050 net zero target — before backing the Jackdaw gasfield. No decision has been announced on Rosebank. From December, the UK takes the revolving G20 presidency and, the Guardian understands, will emphasise resilience against climate impacts.

Miliband, now foreign secretary and credited by many participants with the patient bridge-building that rescued Cop30's final deal, is expected to accompany Burnham. At this year's UN general assembly he briefed governments on the joint intelligence committee's warning that collapsing ecosystems pose a national security risk, threatening food shortages, mass migration and potential nuclear war. Energy and net zero secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh will head the UK delegation for the final days of talks.

The EU arrives with weakened convictions: far-right populists are rising, and the bloc has watered down its green deal, loosened corporate climate liabilities, delayed deforestation-linked trade rules and extended the phase-in of car emissions standards. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen — who called this summer's heatwaves and drought a "summer of truth" — is confirmed. Dutch climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra will oversee the final stages and is expected to make competition with China a key focus.

Who runs the process — and who is blocking it?

Cop31 is UN secretary general António Guterres's final climate summit. His successor is unnamed; the US has pushed Viktor Orbán, the far-right former Hungarian leader, or former UAE minister Lana Nusseibeh. UNFCCC executive secretary Simon Stiell must now liaise between two co-hosts as well as the fractious parties.

Saudi Arabia, which failed to confirm its delegation head before Cop, has a long history of obstruction and feels emboldened under Trump, working with Russia, Venezuela and the Like-Minded Developing Countries. At Cop30 it refused to allow even an oblique mention of the Cop28 pledge to "transition away from fossil fuels" until the final moments. At recent IPCC meetings, Saudi Arabia led a group including China, India, Russia and Kenya in fighting to delay the next comprehensive climate science assessment, expected in 2028 for the "global stocktake" at Cop33. A delay of a year or more would sap urgency from that assessment — and could let countries get away with inadequate decarbonisation.