COP31 Opens in Turkey With Plea to Electrify a Third of World Economy

The COP31 climate summit opened on Turkey's Mediterranean coast on Monday with a call to electrify more than a third of the global economy by 2035, up from around a fifth today. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell warned that progress so far was "nowhere near fast enough."

The two-week UN conference begins against a grim backdrop. A UN Environment Programme report published in October said the world is already poised to overshoot 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming above pre-industrial times — the threshold set at the 2015 Paris summit to avoid the worst consequences of climate change.

How hot has this year been?

This year is on track to be one of the four hottest on record, driven by a powerful El Nino, according to a UN report published Monday. The year has also brought extreme heatwaves across Western Europe and a glacier collapse in Nepal that triggered a catastrophic flood killing more than 1,450 people, with thousands still missing.

"The urgency of this moment must drive us forward," Stiell said at the opening ceremony.

What does Turkey's presidency want?

Turkey's COP31 presidency has put electrification at the center of this year's summit. It is asking nations to sign a pledge supporting the target of electrifying more than a third of the global economy by 2035. In theory, that would cut planet-warming emissions by speeding the shift away from fossil fuel-powered vehicles, furnaces, boilers, cooking stoves and other greenhouse gas-emitting equipment.

"We want people to feel the results of climate talks in daily life: in buildings that use less energy, in clean public transport, in energy they can afford and in new jobs," said Turkey's COP31 President Murat Kurum.

Climate advocates have criticized the pledge because it does not require the additional electricity to come from low-carbon sources. That sets up an early fight over whether electrification alone should count as climate progress.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told reporters on a return flight from Azerbaijan, according to a transcript shared by his office, that he wants concrete outcomes. "Our goal is to make this summit a platform where concrete results are produced, where countries turn their pledges into action, because it is no longer time to make promises that remain on paper," he said.

How do war and fossil fuels complicate the talks?

The Iran war, now in its ninth month, has severely disrupted Middle East oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting fuel prices worldwide and prompting a scramble for new supplies. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has likewise underscored the world's attachment to fossil fuels, though some argue both wars have shown the benefits of moving to renewables.

US President Donald Trump's administration is shunning climate talks for the second year running and has encouraged policies maximizing oil, gas and coal production to address the disruptions. South Korea, India, Thailand and other Asian nations have increased their reliance on coal or taken steps to boost coal-fired power generation.

"A lot of people who previously might have been embarrassed to argue for continuing very high use of fossil fuel are now feeling empowered to make that case," said John Holdren of Harvard University, who served as science adviser to former US President Barack Obama.

Renewable deployment has also risen, driven by surging exports of cheap clean tech from China. Stiell told the summit renewables are the clear answer to improving energy security. "This year's fossil fuel cost chaos has delivered a global shockwave, hitting households hard and spreading inflation like a cancer," he said, adding that renewable energy installations have already saved the global economy hundreds of billions of dollars.

Where does AI fit in?

The rapid rollout of AI is complicating the talks by driving a surge in global power demand and contributing to rising greenhouse gas emissions. Turkey will call on governments, businesses and other institutions at COP31 to sign a pledge outlining principles to ensure AI is developed and deployed sustainably.

Chris Bowen, Australia's president of COP31 negotiations, said he hopes the conference proves multilateralism still works. "Let's show future generations that this generation was equal to the moment, equal to the challenge," he said.

The summit's outcome will hinge on whether the electrification pledge survives the fight over its lack of low-carbon requirements — and whether governments distracted by war, inflation and AI power demand sign on at all.