COP31 Opens in Antalya With Narrower Agenda and a 67% Energy Shock

A Bloomberg index of oil and gas futures jumped about 67% in the 12 months to Friday — the backdrop negotiators from almost 200 countries carried into COP31, which opened Monday in the resort city of Antalya, Turkey. Roughly 60,000 diplomats, officials and advocates will spend two weeks on the narrowest negotiating agenda of any major climate conference since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

"War and geopolitical tension persist. Trade routes, energy networks and supply chains are being redrawn," Murat Kurum, Turkey's environment, urbanization and climate change minister and the COP31 president, said in opening remarks. "As crises feed off one another, we must make sure our solutions strengthen one another too."

Why ambition is down this year?

The UN warned last month that the world can no longer keep global warming below 1.5C, the threshold staked out in Paris. This year's extreme weather has underscored the risk: tens of thousands of deaths from heat waves and wildfires across Europe, plus a devastating glacier collapse in Nepal.

Wars in Iran and Ukraine have strained alliances and diverted funding from climate aid to defense spending. Yet those same conflicts exposed the cost of fossil fuel dependence, and rising oil and gas prices have become a catalyst for cleaner energy.

"This year's fossil fuel cost chaos has delivered a global shockwave, hitting households hard and spreading inflation like a cancer," UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said. "But the solutions are clear: Global renewables saved around half a trillion dollars last year," and "adaptation delivers proven returns on investment."

Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation and a Paris Agreement architect, told reporters last week that the world now has emissions-free technologies offering a "solution to escape from that volatility and have more solar and more energy security."

Who is in the room?

Fewer world leaders than usual are attending. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Finland's President Alexander Stubb are expected, alongside China's Vice President Han Zheng, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol.

A large US delegation of congressional representatives, state governors and city mayors aims to show that despite President Donald Trump's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and federal rollbacks, decarbonization continues in boardrooms, cities and states. Public scrutiny of data centers' energy footprint — a factor that boosted some Democratic candidates in last week's US midterms — is adding fresh impetus to green activism.

It's "a bit of a roll-up-your-sleeves-and-get-it-done COP," said David Waskow, director of the World Resources Institute's International Climate Initiative. "It's not as flashy — but it is about getting the job done."

What does the summit actually want to achieve?

The flagship target: raise electricity's share of global final energy consumption from just over 20% today to 35% by 2035. Chris Bowen, Australia's climate change and energy minister, who leads negotiations under a compromise splitting duties between Ankara and Canberra, has said the presidency aims to fold the electrification goal into a political cover decision. Some nations already want the target achieved primarily with emission-free electricity.

Negotiators will also work to translate COP28's Dubai commitments — including the transition away from fossil fuels — into action, operationalize adaptation indicators agreed last year, and build a mechanism protecting workers and communities hit by the energy transition. Voluntary pledges include plans for AI firms to disclose environmental impact data and for data centers to run on clean power.

"If things can be agreed by the entire world, given all the divergent interests, it's particularly impactful," Sue Biniaz, a former US deputy special envoy for climate, told reporters.

Will the money materialize?

Climate finance looms as the main flashpoint. Countries agreed two years ago to $300 billion annually by 2035, led by developed nations, with ambitions to mobilize $1.3 trillion a year by 2035 from public and private sources. Delivery on time remains uncertain.

"We have the technologies. The price of renewables has come down significantly," said Ilana Seid of Palau, who chairs the Alliance of Small Island States. "Unlocking acceleration really has to do a lot with finance."

The European Union, the largest climate finance provider, has ruled out new pledges. "Any conversation on new fresh money is dead in the water," EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra said in an interview last month.

The COP process itself faces scrutiny: a roundtable convened by Stiell is weighing an overhaul, including dropping the consensus rule that produces lowest-common-denominator outcomes. Dutch Climate Minister Stientje van Veldhoven still defends the grind. "It's slow," she said of the talks. "But it works. And so we need to continue doing it."