Crude Oil Shed Almost $13 Last Week: $83.30 Is the Next Target

By Grace Kim

WTI crude closed last week at $90.35 — almost $13 below where it started, its worst week in more than half a year, according to TradingView analyst Trade-Lean. The damage came fast. A single 4-hour candle on Wednesday took the price from $94 to $87. A bounce to $92.50 faded on Friday, and sellers held control into the close.

This week picked up where that slide left off. Monday opened near $90.80, slipped under $90 in the morning session, and the midday candle dropped to $86.20 — slightly below last Thursday's low near $86.70. Buyers stepped in at that level and pushed the price back to roughly $87.70, just above the $87.10 line.

The numbers stack up cleanly:

• Last week's range: from $94 to $86.70, closing at $90.35 — down nearly $13 week-over-week
• Monday's low: $86.20, undercutting the prior week's floor at $86.70
• Monday's recovery high: around $87.70, capped just above $87.10
• Supply zone overhead: roughly $89.45 to $90.90

In plain words: the bounce didn't even reach the broken floor, which is what a bearish market looks like.

What does the price structure say?

Oil now trades below a shaded resistance area running from about $89.45 to $90.90. Trade-Lean notes that at these levels, price tends to move in steps: a sharp drop, then a slow, choppy bounce that stalls under the line above, then the next leg lower.

That's the pattern to watch this week. The question is whether Monday's low at $86.20 holds — or whether it was only the first look under last week's floor.

One caveat keeps the bears honest. In Trade-Lean's reading, this is a pullback inside a larger uptrend, not a trend reversal. Oil started the year near $57 and, even after a $13 weekly drop, still trades roughly 50% higher than that January level.

Where are the next targets and triggers?

The analyst lays out the bearish case in precise terms:

• Trigger: a 4H close below $87.10
• First target: $83.30
• After that: once $83.30 is reached, a bounce back toward $87.10 is the normal next step

The invalidation level matters just as much. A 4H close back above $89.45 — the bottom of the shaded area around $90.30 — would break the bearish setup and put $93.25 back in play. That's the line between "pullback" and "recovery," and it sits about $3 above Monday's recovery high near $87.70.

Why Tuesday could decide the week

Tuesday brings the US CPI report, and volatility risk is unusually wide. On a CPI day, Trade-Lean notes, oil can swing anywhere from about $83.30 up to $96.20 — a theoretical range of nearly $13, matching the entire size of last week's decline.

That means both sides of the setup are live. A hot inflation print could test the $87.10 trigger and accelerate the move toward $83.30. A soft one could drive the bounce back into the $89.45–$90.90 zone and threaten the bearish case entirely.

The analyst plans two 4H chart updates per day in the comments through Friday, tracking whether the $86.20 low survives contact with the CPI data. Until then, $87.10 is the line that tells traders which story they're in.