ETH Faces $1,800 Test as Spot ETFs Bleed $1.61 Billion in October

Spot Ethereum ETFs just logged 23 straight trading days of net outflows — from Sept. 29 to Oct. 30 — the longest streak since the products launched in July 2024. More than $1.61 billion left the funds in October alone, and one veteran investment writer says that signal has turned him into a seller.

Investment writer Dominic Basulto said he is selling his Ethereum now, pointing to one signal he calls "flashing red": steady money leaving spot ETH exchange-traded funds. Basulto disclosed that he holds both ETH and SOL.

What does the outflow streak change for holders?

The fund data backs his worry, and it comes at a bad moment for price. ETH trades near $2,040 as of Wednesday, little moved over 24 hours, but down about 16% over seven days and roughly the same over 30 days. Those matching figures tell a simple story: the coin held steady for most of the past month, then gave up all of that ground in a single week.

The picture off the price chart has cooled too. Active Ethereum addresses have dropped to their lowest level since December 2025, while Solana keeps winning DeFi users. Basulto also questioned the "ETH 2.0" golden-age thesis from BitMine chairman Tom Lee.

The macro numbers frame the damage. ETH is down about 30% this year and sits roughly 57% below its $4,954 all-time high. Without institutional buy-in, Basulto said, a new rally in 2027 is hard to see.

Why the moving averages matter now

The drop pushed ETH under both of its major trend lines at once. The 50-day moving average, which tracks the average closing price over roughly the past two and a half months, sits near $2,330. The 200-day average, a longer gauge of the overall trend, is close to $2,300.

Price below both lines means each one now works as a ceiling. Traders often sell into those levels, so rallies toward them tend to stall.

The two averages also sit close together, with the shorter one still above the longer one. That gap is small, and a continued slide could pull the 50-day under the 200-day — a crossover chart watchers treat as a sign the longer trend has turned lower.

Is the market oversold yet?

Almost, but that alone doesn't mark a bottom. The relative strength index, or RSI, measures momentum on a 0-to-100 scale; readings above 70 point to an overheated market, below 30 to oversold conditions. ETH's daily RSI sits right at 30, the edge of the oversold zone.

In strong downtrends, RSI can stay pinned near oversold for weeks while price keeps sliding. Other gauges show no turn yet: the MACD, a tool that compares short and long price trends, remains below its signal line. In plain terms, momentum still points down. Trend-strength readings show a firm trend, and sellers are driving it.

Where's the floor if $2,000 breaks?

The $2,000 mark sits just under the current price, and traders watch it closely because buy and sell orders cluster around round numbers. A clean daily close below it would show buyers have given up a line they have defended so far.

Below that, the daily chart points to support near $1,850 — the nearest floor where buyers have stepped in before. The data maps no further support below it. A break there would leave the $1,800 area exposed, with little to slow the fall.

Repair starts overhead. Resistance stands near $2,280, and a move back above it would be the first sign sellers are losing their grip. The next hurdle sits around $2,400, which would bring ETH back near its trend lines.

Two paths for the next three days

The bullish case: buyers defend $2,000 and push price through first resistance near $2,280, opening a run toward the trend lines. A daily close back under $2,000 would cancel this setup.

The bearish case: a daily close below the round number puts $1,850 in play, with $1,800 as the next target if selling deepens. A reclaim of $2,280 would invalidate this view.

ETH stays in a downtrend until ETF money starts flowing back in and price climbs above both moving averages — neither has happened yet. But sellers face their own risk: near-oversold markets can snap higher in sudden short squeezes, and those moves often hit late sellers hardest.