Nasdaq 100 Trapped Between Rising Lows and a 28,620 Lid

The Nasdaq 100 traded at 28,275 on Nov. 13 (07:23 UTC, OANDA NAS100USD), squeezed between a rising support trendline near 28,240 and a hard resistance lid at 28,620 — and the squeeze tightened the day Jensen Huang resigned as Nvidia's CEO.

The technical picture tells the story in two timeframes. On the daily chart, the trend is still down: a sequence of lower highs runs from the Oct. 6 peak at 31,400 to 30,045 on Oct. 28, 28,862 on Nov. 4 and 28,617 on Nov. 11. Cash NDX closed Thursday at 28,289, below its 20-, 50- and 100-day averages of 28,651, 29,537 and 29,379, and only about 260 points above the 200-day at 28,029 (Yahoo data).

What's pushing back against the downtrend?

The 4-hour chart shows buyers regrouping. The rebound off the Nov. 5–6 crash low of 26,273 has printed higher lows at 26,659 (Nov. 9), 27,431 (Nov. 10) and 27,962 (Nov. 12). A trendline drawn through the Nov. 9 and Nov. 12 lows sits near 28,240 and climbs roughly 390 points per day — price is testing it now, according to the analysis by TradingView author AetherEdge.

Above the market, two near-equal highs cap the bounce: 28,617 from Nov. 11 (18:00 UTC) and 28,526 from Nov. 13. That forms the 28,620 lid. Further resistance waits at 28,860, the Nov. 4 high. Support levels stack at the trendline near 28,240, then 27,960 (the Nov. 12 low, close to the 200-day average) and 27,430 (the Nov. 10 low).

How big was the Nvidia shock?

Big. Huang resigned as CEO with immediate effect on Nov. 12, and CFO Colette Kress stepped in as interim CEO, per Nvidia's release and SEC 8-K filing. Nvidia closed down 4.3% after falling as much as 12–14% intraday, then dropped about 3% more after hours (Reuters). Rivals diverged sharply: AMD gained 5.9% and Broadcom added 5.5% (Reuters). Nvidia reports Q3 results on Tuesday, Nov. 17 at 21:20 UTC.

The index itself has been resilient. Cash NDX slipped just 0.30% to 28,289 on Thursday after a 2.3% rally Wednesday, when CoreWeave's results lifted chip stocks and the SOX index jumped 5.7% (Yahoo, Reuters). NQ futures sat at 28,346 at 07:04 UTC (Yahoo).

What are rates and the Fed doing?

The macro backdrop is the heavier weight. The US 10-year yield hit 5.12%, a three-week high, and the 2-year reached 4.86% after a 14-basis-point jump Thursday (CNBC quote data). A December Fed hike is essentially fully priced, with roughly 10–15% odds of a 50-basis-point move (CME FedWatch via Yahoo / TradingView News).

Fed speakers reinforced the message. Williams said "more interest rate increases are likely"; Daly said "further tightening will be needed" (Reuters). Elsewhere, the dollar index stood at 103.12, the VIX at 18.70 versus roughly 28 on Nov. 6, and Brent crude at 96.50 after a 3.3% jump Thursday (CNBC quote data).

Which scenario wins?

AetherEdge assigns probabilities to two paths:

• Scenario A (55%): Yields above 5% plus the Nvidia leadership shock keep the bounce capped under 28,620. A 4H close below 27,950 breaks the trendline and the Nov. 12 low, opening 27,430.
• Scenario B (45%): A soft PPI report cools yields, the trendline holds, and a 4H close above 28,650 opens 28,860.

Invalidation is symmetrical: a 4H close above 28,650 kills the bearish view; a 4H close below 27,950 kills Scenario B.

What happens in the next 48 hours?

The calendar is dense. US October PPI lands Nov. 13 at 13:30 UTC (08:30 ET), with consensus at +0.4% headline and +0.3% core. Fed speakers follow: Collins at 14:10, Logan at 14:40, Bowman at 15:50, Daly at 17:00, and Jefferson at 00:00 on Nov. 14. Japan's Q3 GDP prints Nov. 15 at 23:50 UTC, and Nvidia's Q3 report caps the week Nov. 17 at 21:20 UTC.

PPI on Monday morning and Nvidia on Tuesday are the two events that decide which side of 28,620 the index trades on.