EUR/USD Slides 0.3% as Hot U.S. CPI Puts Fed Hike Back on the Table

EUR/USD fell roughly 0.3% toward 1.1190 on Tuesday after October U.S. CPI printed hotter than expected, reviving the case for another Federal Reserve hike in December.

Headline inflation rose 0.4% month-over-month in October against a 0.3% consensus, according to the tastyfx analysis published on TradingView. The miss pushed Treasury yields higher and reinforced expectations for a December Fed move. Before the report landed, Governor Christopher Waller had already backed at least a 25-bps hike and left the door open to 50 bps if inflation worsens.

That sequencing mattered. The dollar regained control of the pair after Monday's risk-on pullback, and the fresh U.S. inflation surprise gave the greenback what tastyfx called "the cleaner, immediate catalyst" in a market where both major central banks look hawkish.

Why did the dollar win the day?

The euro isn't without its own support. The ECB has grown increasingly hawkish, with Chief Economist Philip Lane saying a December hike "may be prudent" if current conditions persist. Eurozone inflation, meanwhile, has accelerated to a three-year high.

The problem for EUR/USD is relative momentum. Both the Fed and the ECB are leaning tight, but only one of them got a new inflation print on Tuesday — and it came in hot. The dollar had the data; the euro had the narrative. Data won.

What does the chart say?

The technical picture remains firmly bearish. Price trades around 1.1150, below every major moving average, per the tastyfx breakdown:

• 5-day average: near 1.1180
• 21-day average: around 1.1240
• 50-day average: near 1.1350
• 100- and 200-day averages: stacked even higher, around 1.1435–1.1500

"That is a very bearish alignment," the analysis notes. The euro has stopped accelerating lower for now, but nothing on the price chart says the downtrend has actually turned. In plain words: the selling has paused, not reversed.

Where are the levels to watch?

The first resistance zone sits at 1.1180–1.1245, an area that catches both the 5-day and 21-day averages. That's where any bounce faces its first meaningful test, tastyfx says.

If EUR/USD fails there, the bearish trend stays intact and 1.1100 comes back into focus quickly. A clean break below 1.1100 opens the door toward 1.1000 — a level that would mark a psychologically significant round-number break for the pair.

What's next?

December is now the pivot. Waller's comments and the October CPI together have hardened Fed pricing, while Lane's conditional language gives the ECB room to match or wait. The next moves in EUR/USD hinge on whether eurozone data hands the ECB its own clean catalyst — until then, the dollar holds the stronger hand.