Ferrari lifts 2026 guidance after a narrow Q3 earnings beat

By Olivia Hart

Ferrari raised its 2026 revenue guidance to €7.65 billion, a €50 million increase, after adjusted third-quarter earnings of €2.44 per share beat the €2.37 consensus compiled by LSEG. Ferrari reported third-quarter revenue of €1.90 billion, ahead of LSEG’s €1.89 billion estimate, while adjusted EPS equaled $2.77.

What did Ferrari deliver in the third quarter?

Ferrari’s adjusted EPS exceeded consensus by €0.07, and revenue cleared the estimate by €10 million. Those gaps were consistent with Ferrari’s characterization of a slightly better-than-expected quarter. The quarter cleared expectations, but only narrowly.

How did investors and analysts react?

RBC Capital Markets analyst Tom Narayan said Tuesday that Ferrari’s results were largely in line with Wall Street expectations. He said shares may be:

“under slight pressure given some were hoping for a bigger guidance raise, but expect it to get better once folks realize these results are healthy.”

Ferrari’s U.S. stock initially declined on the results before turning positive to close Tuesday at $414.77 a share, up 2.9%. The positive close softened the initial reaction, but Narayan’s caveat showed that some investors had expected a larger guidance increase. The shares closed higher, yet hopes for a bigger raise remained unmet.

How much did Ferrari’s 2026 guidance rise?

Ferrari lifted its 2026 targets on Tuesday:

• Revenue: €7.65 billion, up from €7.60 billion.
• Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization: €3.00 billion, up from €2.97 billion.
• Adjusted EPS: At least €9.85, up from at least €9.68.
• Industrial free cash flow: Up to €1.65 billion, versus a previous expectation of at least €1.55 billion.

Calculations from Ferrari’s figures put the revenue increase at 0.7%, the adjusted EBITDA increase at about 1.0%, and the adjusted EPS increase at 1.8%. Those revisions moved the operating targets higher without changing their overall scale.

The cash target rose by €100 million, but the benchmark changed from a floor to a ceiling. This was Ferrari’s second consecutive quarterly increase to 2026 guidance. Most operating targets rose modestly, while the cash-flow revision does not offer a like-for-like comparison.

Why is guidance rising while shipments fall?

Through the first nine months, Ferrari shipped 10,170 vehicles, 318 fewer than last year, a decline of about 3%. Ferrari said the shortfall was led by fewer shipments to the Americas and China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Ferrari attributed its guidance improvements to stronger-than-expected customer personalizations, lower-than-anticipated currency headwinds and a second-place finish in the Formula 1 championship. That explanation combines commercial execution, currency and racing results. Ferrari did not quantify each factor’s contribution or explain how lower shipments will affect future deliveries.

The company also did not disclose what share of the revised targets came from personalizations rather than currency or Formula 1 performance. Ferrari raised its financial targets while the physical shipment count moved in the opposite direction.

What does the order book extending into 2028 mean?

Benedetto Vigna, Ferrari CEO, said in Tuesday’s release:

“Our order book now reaches into 2028, and we still have two more launches to come this year. In addition, we continue to create engaging events around the world to further tighten the bonds with our clients and partners across Racing, Sports Cars and Lifestyle.”

The order book supports visibility beyond 2026, but Ferrari disclosed no backlog value, cancellation terms or delivery schedule. Vigna also did not identify the two launches, their exact dates or their expected volumes. The longer order book supports revenue planning, not guaranteed deliveries.

Ferrari’s next test is whether shipments recover as its order book reaches into 2028 and two more launches arrive this year.