Fervo’s contracted revenue jumps to $11.9 billion

By Olivia Hart

What does Fervo’s contracted-revenue backlog show?

Fervo reported $11.9 billion of contracted revenue in its third-quarter earnings report, released Monday, up from $7.2 billion last quarter.

The geothermal company said its recent record of hitting project deadlines helped drive orders. The $4.7 billion sequential increase was not broken down by contract, customer or project.

Fervo’s balance sheet showed:

• An operating loss of $43.7 million for the quarter.
• Cash and cash equivalents of $1.9 billion.
• Long-term debt of $301.6 million.

Fervo said the cash position should give the company plenty of runway. The disclosed figures do not show when the backlog becomes recognized revenue, how much cash operations consume or how quickly all contracted projects can be delivered.

Takeaway: Fervo has a much larger backlog and substantial cash, but the disclosure does not yet prove how profitable or timely delivery will be.

Can Fervo deliver geothermal power on Google’s schedule?

Fervo said it was on track to complete a 396-megawatt power plant for Google by the end of 2028. The company connected its first 100-megawatt plant to the grid earlier this year.

Both projects sit at Cape Station in Utah. Fervo estimates the resource could generate 8.4 gigawatts, more than twice the roughly 4 gigawatts that outside experts previously said the site could produce.

The account did not identify those experts or explain how Fervo reassessed the resource. The company’s larger estimate nevertheless underpins its ability to supply hyperscalers seeking electricity for AI data centers.

The Google project, now called Cape Google 400, carries a stated target of 396 megawatts. Latimer said during Monday’s earnings call that the project will be grid connected.

Under the arrangement, Google can draw power from the deal and sell it to other customers if it is not ready to use the electricity. That structure allows the project to proceed independently of a data center’s construction schedule.

Co-founder and CEO Tim Latimer said: “We build Cape Station on our schedule. Google can develop a potential data center on their schedule, and neither party is waiting on the other.”

Fervo argued that phased construction gives geothermal an advantage over large nuclear and natural-gas plants. Capacity can come online in stages rather than waiting for an entire facility.

The company said its newer wells are deeper and hotter. Each can generate 15 megawatts of gross power, and several wells are linked into units that Fervo calls GeoBlocks.

• The first completed GeoBlock generated 33 megawatts.
• Recent GeoBlocks have reached 50 megawatts.
• Fervo sized the blocks to match demand from a typical data center hall, allowing hyperscalers to activate them as construction finishes.

Fervo presented the larger blocks as evidence of significant progress over the past few years. The figures show what completed and recent units have achieved, not what every future block or the full 396-megawatt project will deliver.

Takeaway: Fervo has grid-connected 100 megawatts and reported stronger blocks, while the 396-megawatt Google target remains a forecast.

Can geothermal close the cost gap with natural gas?

Fervo said the first phase of Cape Station cost $7,000 per kilowatt of capacity. Its Google project costs $5,500 per kilowatt, a $1,500 reduction, or about 21%.

At the Google project’s stated cost, each megawatt represents $5.5 million in capacity cost. The first phase equated to $7 million per megawatt.

With subsidies, Fervo said the Google project is roughly equivalent to a new natural-gas plant using fuel priced at $6 per million BTUs. Even so, the company described geothermal as costing about twice what natural gas costs today, while moving closer.

Hyperscalers’ current hunger for power may not make them immune to price, Fervo cautioned. Its case for winning on price therefore depends on maintaining construction and cost discipline.

The company’s long-term target is $3,000 per kilowatt, equivalent to $3 million per megawatt. Fervo said that level could significantly undercut natural gas even at today’s prices.

Reaching $3,000 would require another roughly 45% reduction from the Google project’s current figure. Fervo did not provide a timetable for the target, and its comparison does not disclose a Google power-purchase price or broader contract terms.

Takeaway: Costs are falling, but the $3,000-per-kilowatt target still requires roughly 45% more savings.

Google’s early involvement now marks Fervo’s execution: the 396-megawatt plant must arrive by the end of 2028, and its costs must keep falling toward the level needed to beat natural gas.