Flutter Stock Down 60% as New CEO Spends His Way to Growth

Flutter's stock has lost more than 60% of its value year to date, and the company's new CEO Dan Taylor's first fix is to spend more money on customers, not less. Five weeks into the job, Taylor delivered a third-quarter report on Wednesday that missed Wall Street expectations on both revenue and adjusted EBITDA — and then argued the strategy is working.

The numbers behind the miss are blunt. Revenue rose 2% to $3.87 billion, below the roughly $4 billion LSEG consensus, while adjusted EBITDA fell roughly 25% year over year to $360 million. Flutter posted a net loss of $1.15 billion, including an $873 million non-cash impairment tied primarily to Brazil, which banned sports betting and online gaming in September. The only clean beat: an adjusted loss of 18 cents per share, narrower than the 28-cent loss analysts expected, per LSEG.

What is Taylor actually betting on?

Taylor's thesis is that better products and more generous rewards will convert improving engagement into profits. The early engagement data supports him, at least on volume.

• Average monthly players on FanDuel's U.S. sportsbook rose 9% in the third quarter; bet counts increased 15%.
• Total U.S. average monthly players climbed 12%, including 24% growth in iGaming.
• Sportsbook handle — the total amount wagered — rose 13%. But sportsbook revenue grew just 4%, because promotional spending increased.

That gap is the story: Flutter is buying activity faster than it is converting it into revenue. Taylor told CNBC: "We made some changes to the product. Fundamentally, the way you win this business is by delighting customers, delivering the very best experiences and delivering to them in the way that they want, with the right overall proposition." What he did not say is when promotional intensity stops rising.

A nationwide rewards program launched in September has, in Taylor's words, "resonated really, really well." He also said Flutter sees room to improve structural margins over time by shifting the mix of products customers use — a promise without a timetable attached.

Can FanDuel Predicts compete with Kalshi and Polymarket?

Flutter has increased media spend to build FanDuel Predicts, its predictions platform aimed at rivals Kalshi and Polymarket. The cost is visible: cost of sales as a percent of revenue is forecast at 58% for full-year 2026 and into 2027. Taylor noted fierce industry competition for customers, yet said FanDuel trading volume has skyrocketed 271% since July, and the Predicts app added 140,000 new customers in October. Growth is real; the margin question is deferred to 2027 at the earliest.

What happened in Brazil — and why guidance came down?

Taylor said the company was disappointed by Brazil's provisional measure but took the impairment to "set ourselves up to win long-term." That phrase does a lot of work; an $873 million write-down framed as positioning, not retreat, deserves skepticism until the market reopens.

Brazil's ban and unfavorable sports results in the U.S. and internationally forced Flutter to cut its full-year revenue midpoint by $300 million to $17.61 billion. It also lowered its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook by $160 million to nearly $2.5 billion. In plain terms: two guidance cuts in one quarter, on top of a stock that has already lost over 60% this year.

Are buybacks off the table?

Yes, for now. Taylor said Flutter needs to bring leverage back into its target range of 2 to 2.5 times over roughly the next 24 months before it can consider buybacks again. Until then, the priority is organic growth and paying down debt.

What is the long-term case?

Taylor defended the U.S. opportunity by pointing out that about half the country still lacks access to regulated sports betting and 90% lacks regulated online gaming. He argued that expanding legal markets is not a partisan issue, because regulated betting offers consumer protections and gives tax revenue to states. That is a market-expansion argument, not a margin argument — it depends on state legislatures Flutter does not control.

The takeaway: Taylor is trading near-term profit for engagement, and the scoreboard — 271% trading volume growth, 12% more U.S. players, a 25% EBITDA decline — shows both sides of that trade at once.

By Olivia Hart, Business Bearings