Fossil Fuel Emissions Set to Flatline in 2026, Scientists Say at Cop31

Carbon dioxide from oil, gas and coal is forecast to flatline in 2026, with emissions from burning oil alone dropping 2%, according to a comprehensive scientific assessment presented Tuesday at the Cop31 climate talks in Antalya, Turkey.

The projected fall in fossil fuel emissions for 2026 is about 0.4% compared with last year, based on data from the year so far. Scientists attribute the easing to soaring oil and gas prices following the war in Iran, which pushed drivers to economise on fuel and flock to electric vehicles, alongside the global expansion of cheap renewable energy, chiefly solar and wind power.

What does this change for the energy transition?

For practitioners, the message is caution. Talk of a global turnaround would be premature, the report's authors and other analysts said. The decline is slight, and it could prove temporary.

The reduction in fossil fuel emissions was more than offset by increased emissions from deforestation and land use change, driven by major fires in south-east Asia and further conversions of wild land to agriculture. In plain terms: the fossil fuel line improved, the land-use line worsened, and the net climate picture did not.

Several factors could disrupt the fragile trend, the report's authors warned:

• An intensified expansion of coal in India
• A potential easing of oil prices
• US president Donald Trump's enthusiasm for fossil fuels

Much greater investment in renewable energy and low-carbon technology such as electric vehicles would still be required to make annual emissions reductions permanent, the authors said.

Cop31 enters its second day under strain

About 100,000 delegates crammed into the conference venue on Monday, and long queues for registration badges led the UN to plead for attendees to collect them Tuesday if their Monday presence wasn't compulsory.

Day one vented plenty of angst over whether the Cop process is achieving its goals — and whether Cop is even the best forum for it. Chris Bowen, Australia's climate minister and Cop negotiations chief, urged countries to "show the world that multilateralism works. Let's show the world we are equal to the challenge."

His appeal landed against a fractured, distracted geopolitical backdrop. Leaders from more than 90 countries arrive Wednesday, but the heads of the US and China are notable absentees — a gap that matters for any deal on energy.

Tuesday's theme is energy and transport, touching on a central goal of this Cop: getting the world to agree to greatly increase the share of energy used via electricity. That power, hopefully, will be clean.

Why a 0.4% dip matters — and doesn't

Context for the number: a 0.4% annual decline in fossil fuel emissions is roughly the difference between the world stabilising its output and starting a structural decline. Scientists have long said emissions must fall far faster to stem planetary heating.

The irony behind this year's dip won't be lost on energy investors: the war in Iran did more for oil-demand restraint in one year than most policy instruments manage. When pump prices spiked, drivers economised and switched to EVs — a demand response, not a supply transformation.

That distinction defines the commercial question ahead. If oil prices ease, the price-driven component of the emissions decline could evaporate. The durable part — renewables buildout and EV adoption — depends on the investment the report's authors say is still missing.

Whether Cop31 can broker consensus on electrification, with the US and China leaders absent, will shape how quickly that investment gap closes.