Gold holds higher lows ahead of U.S. CPI and New York open

By Daniel Okafor

Gold reached 4,148.7 overnight before retreating to about 4,111, according to TradingView chart author sheeerren’s analysis of OANDA:XAUUSD.

U.S. headline and core CPI arrive at 17:30 Dubai time, or 08:30 New York time. sheeerren expects a volatility spike and possible stop-runs through nearby levels around the release.

What did Monday’s swing show?

Gold traded across a roughly 95-point range Monday. sheeerren said price flushed to 4,084.5 during the European session, rebuilt through the U.S. session, and broke above last week’s 4,146.9 high. The overnight peak reached 4,148.7 before the failed breakout.

What supports the bullish structure?

On the 45-minute chart, sheeerren identified higher highs from 4,130.7 to 4,148.7 and higher lows from 4,084.5 to 4,100.6. sheeerren added that directional momentum confirmed the move, with +DI above −DI.

ADX in the mid-20s, sheeerren said, suggests the trend has room and remains far from exhaustion. The stated bias was: “buy pullbacks, don’t chase highs.”

Why did the breakout fail overnight?

sheeerren said the break above last week’s 4,146.9 high did not hold. Asian-session trading faded price to about 4,111, placing the 4,148.7 overnight high and last week’s high in one heavy resistance cluster.

The 10-minute chart turned bearish during that fade. sheeerren kept the larger trend pointed upward but described short-term flow as pulling back. The analysis called for patience until buyers appeared again on the lower timeframe.

Where are the key resistance and support levels?

sheeerren’s 15-minute map defines the nearby levels. All come from OANDA:XAUUSD, and sheeerren cautioned that brokers’ prices may differ slightly.

• 4,121.6–4,123.3: Minor resistance, described as a flipped level and weaker because it applies only to the 15-minute chart.
• 4,142.7–4,148.7: Major resistance cluster containing yesterday’s high, last week’s high and swing highs from the 4-hour, 1-hour and 45-minute charts.
• Higher resistance: 4,193–4,199, followed by 4,213–4,219 and 4,223–4,229.
• 4,108.2: Today’s low, labeled minor support.
• 4,100.6–4,104.2: Key pullback zone and the 15-minute, 45-minute and 1-hour higher low that defines the uptrend.
• 4,084.5–4,090.5: The 4-hour swing low and yesterday’s flush low.
• Deeper support: 4,076.2–4,081.2, a flipped resistance level, followed by 4,053.9–4,055.7, yesterday’s low.

Which setups require confirmation?

The first setup is a pullback buy at 4,100.6–4,104.2. sheeerren called this the main idea and the trend’s latest higher low. It becomes actionable only after price reaches the zone and lower timeframes turn upward. sheeerren requires a clean bullish break of structure on the 2-minute chart, with the 10-minute chart agreeing.

A 15-minute close below 4,100.6 breaks the higher-low sequence and cancels the setup at that level, sheeerren said.

The backup setup is a deeper buy at 4,084.5–4,090.5. If the first zone gives way, sheeerren treats the 4-hour swing low as the next strong support and the last line of the current up-structure. Losing it would turn the 45-minute structure neutral to bearish and open a move toward 4,054.

Neither setup is active while price sits around 4,108–4,121, sheeerren said. A move above 4,123 would return the 4,142–4,149 cluster to focus. Buyers would then need to prove themselves a second time.

What could disrupt the plan?

sheeerren rates U.S. CPI, covering headline and core readings, as a high-impact release at 17:30 Dubai time and 08:30 New York time. sheeerren expects a volatility spike and possible stop-runs through nearby levels. The analysis advises against opening fresh positions in the 15 minutes on either side.

The cited New York open window, 18:15–18:45 Dubai time, follows immediately. sheeerren therefore expects the broader 17:15–18:45 stretch to remain choppy.

The analysis also lists ADP weekly employment data at 16:15 and a 10-year note auction at 22:00. sheeerren rates both as medium impact.

sheeerren labels the analysis educational and informational, not financial, investment or trading advice. The author says every setup follows a strict, rule-based framework. sheeerren also warns that gold and leveraged products carry significant risk of loss and calls for traders’ own risk parameters, proper position sizing and validated confirmations.

The next test arrives with CPI at 08:30 New York time. A move above 4,123 would put 4,142–4,149 back in play, while a 15-minute close below 4,100.6 would cancel the first buy setup and shift attention to 4,084.5–4,090.5.