Gold Reclaims $4,100 as Oil Break Lowers Inflation Pressure

Gold tagged about $4,120 on Monday — its highest level since October 21 — and reclaimed the $4,100 handle after rallying roughly 5% last week, according to an analysis by Bitget on TradingView. The move came despite CME FedWatch still pricing an 81% chance of a December rate hike.

That contradiction is the story, Bitget argues. Gold isn't rallying because the market expects cuts. "It's rallying because the thing pinning it down — oil — just broke," the analysis states.

Why did gold move now?

Two drivers flipped in gold's favour at once. Oil sold off hard on hopes of an end to the US–Israel–Iran war, draining a big chunk of the energy-inflation premium out of the curve. Less inflation pressure means less reason for the Fed to lean harder — bullish for a metal that pays no coupon.

The dollar weakened alongside, making gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers, and that showed up immediately in the bid.

Demand has a second leg. China's central bank bought 25.8 tonnes of gold in October, its largest monthly addition in three years.

The backdrop is still tight. The Fed held rates at 3.75%–4.00% on October 28, payrolls came in hot, and wage growth beat at 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. October CPI landed the day of the report, at 8:30am ET, with PPI right behind.

What does the chart show?

Bitget calls it a recovery inside a correction, not a reversal. Price rebounded hard from the $3,870–$3,880 low and reclaimed the short-term moving-average ribbon, with the faster averages starting to curl up. That's genuine momentum repair.

The problem is overhead. The longer-term averages are still sloping down, and price is walking into supply that has already rejected it once.

The key levels, per the analysis:

• $4,140–$4,210 — main supply zone, overlapping long-term MA resistance; the decisive hurdle
• $4,100–$4,115 — immediate pivot; hold it and the rebound stays alive
• $4,030–$4,050 — intermediate support, short-term MA cluster
• $3,950–$4,010 — major demand zone marked on the chart
• $3,870–$3,880 — recent swing low; the line in the sand

What are the two scenarios?

In the bullish continuation case, gold holds above $4,100 and accepts above $4,140–$4,150. The first objective is $4,185, then $4,200–$4,210. A daily close above the whole zone plus a clean retest is the real signal — that opens $4,240 and $4,280.

In the bearish rejection case, the zone rejects price and gold closes back below $4,100. Momentum dies fast, Bitget writes. $4,050–$4,030 is the first test, then the $4,010–$3,950 demand shelf. Lose that on a closing basis and the recent lows come back into play.

What would break the rally?

An upside CPI surprise. Hotter inflation strengthens the dollar and lifts real yields, and with an 81% hike probability already priced, there's limited room for gold to absorb another hawkish repricing. Central-bank buying is real demand, but it won't protect against a two-week drawdown.

The second risk is mechanical. CPI days produce false breaks — a wick through $4,140 or $4,100 means far less than where the daily candle closes.

"Bottom line: I'm cautiously constructive above $4,100, but $4,140–$4,210 is where this rally either becomes something or dies," the analysis states. Chasing into supply ahead of CPI is a worse trade than waiting for a retest of $4,100 or a validated breakout, Bitget writes, adding: "I want daily closes and follow-through — not the first spike."

Bitget notes the levels are approximate readings from its chart and cited reports, and that the analysis is not investment advice.