S&P 500 futures rebound faces Nov. 10 inflation test

By Daniel Okafor

The December E-mini S&P 500 futures contract (CME_MINI:ES1!) settled at 7,574.25 on Monday, up 172.25 points, or 2.33%, according to MyAlgoIndex, whose setup is neutral-to-lower below 7,661.92. MyAlgoIndex called it the highest settle since 11/04/26 and a second consecutive higher settle.

MyAlgoIndex recorded a range of 7,600.50 to 7,363.75. That produced a higher high and higher low against Friday. The contract closed at 88.9% of its 236.75-point range.

What drove Monday's rebound?

MyAlgoIndex's intraday review placed the low in the 6:00 PM ET bar at Sunday's reopen. The 9:30 AM ET bar rose 58.00 points, the largest gain among all 30-minute bars. The 3:00 PM ET bar made the high.

A 2:38 PM ET news-feed report citing sources said Washington had allowed uranium enrichment inside Iran at 3.67%. MyAlgoIndex said the advance and the report coincided, then warned that “the report is not a confirmed agreement.”

MyAlgoIndex reported that the S&P 500 cash index rose 2.35% to 7,549.94. The Nasdaq-100 gained 3.40%, and the semiconductor index jumped 6.86%. Commentary in the review attributed the chip move to dip buying in chipmakers and a lower crude price. December crude fell 4.38%, the dollar index eased to 101.65, and the volatility index closed at 19.92.

What do the indicators say?

MyAlgoIndex's composite multi-indicator read fell to 64% sell from 88% sell a session earlier. Negative direction led narrowly on both directional systems. The futures settle returned above the 200-day settlement average after two settles beneath it. It remained below the 20-day and 50-day levels for an eighth session.

According to MyAlgoIndex's dealer-positioning dataset, the cash close sat 8.06 points below the modeled gamma-flip level at SPX 7,558 and 49.94 points above the SPX 7,500 key strike.

MyAlgoIndex placed the modeled volatility threshold at SPX 7,690 as the next reference above. The analysis set the bias at neutral-to-lower below Pivot R1 at 7,661.92. A rebound toward 7,661.92 was the more likely upside reach, while a stall beneath it was the base case.

Where are the key zones?

MyAlgoIndex used Monday's measured 24.31-point basis for most SPX conversions. Its own paired levels used a 22.32-point offset.

Resistance

• 7,749.58 Pivot R2 (SPX 7,725.27); 7,724.31, the SPX 7,700 key-strike conversion (SPX 7,700.00).
• 7,714.31, the modeled volatility-threshold conversion, and MyAlgoIndex's paired level at 7,712.32; both map to SPX 7,690.00.
• 7,682.39, the 38.2% retracement from the 13-week high (SPX 7,658.08); 7,661.92 Pivot R1 (SPX 7,637.61).
• 7,613.63, the midpoint of the 13-week range (SPX 7,589.32); 7,600.50, Monday's high (SPX 7,576.19).
• 7,582.31, the modeled gamma-flip conversion, and MyAlgoIndex's paired level at 7,580.32; both map to SPX 7,558.00.

Support

• 7,574.25, Monday's settle (SPX 7,549.94); 7,544.86, the 38.2% retracement from the 13-week low (SPX 7,520.55).
• 7,527.78, the published target price (SPX 7,503.47); 7,524.31, the SPX 7,500 key-strike conversion (SPX 7,500.00).
• 7,512.83 Pivot Point (SPX 7,488.52); 7,441.50, the 200-day settlement average (SPX 7,417.19).
• 7,432.34, one-standard-deviation support (SPX 7,408.03); 7,425.17 Pivot S1 (SPX 7,400.86).
• 7,324.31, the primary put-side support-base conversion, and MyAlgoIndex's paired level at 7,322.32; both map to SPX 7,300.00.

How does the short setup work?

MyAlgoIndex recommends shorting the December contract from a 7,645-7,655 entry band, equivalent to SPX 7,620.69-7,630.69. The entry sits above the 7,613.63 midpoint and below Pivot R1 at 7,661.92. The stop is 7,680, or SPX 7,655.69. It sits above Pivot R1 and the 7,671.27 retracement, but below the 7,682.39 retracement.

The first target is 7,620, or SPX 7,595.69, above the 13-week-range midpoint. The second is 7,590, or SPX 7,565.69, above the 7,582.31 conversion of the SPX 7,558 gamma flip. The third is 7,560, or SPX 7,535.69, below Monday's settle.

MyAlgoIndex estimated risk-reward at roughly 1:1, 1:2, and 1:3 to the three targets from the entry midpoint. Its 14-day average true range was 132.34 points, against a 30-point stop distance. The setup is an analyst judgment that rebounds into Pivot R1 are sold.

What can break the trade?

MyAlgoIndex said a settle above 7,714.31, the conversion of the SPX 7,690 threshold, negates the thesis. It also said “two consecutive 30-minute closes above 7,655 remove the edge before the stop is reached.”

A softer inflation print or another report of progress on Iran could carry price through the stop in one move. Two higher settles with a close near the top of the range posed the main risk to the short.

What matters on Nov. 10?

MyAlgoIndex said the consumer price index release at 8:30 AM ET is the first scheduled test of rates. The 9:30 AM ET cash open follows.

Monday's 7,574.25 settle recovered 191.25 points of Thursday's 337.50-point decline. Tuesday will test whether the rebound stalls below Pivot R1 at 7,661.92, or whether a firmer inflation print sends the contract through the 7,512.83 Pivot Point.