Gold Slides Below $4,000 as 100% December Hike Odds End Rally

Gold trades at $3,978, back below the $4,000 psychological level for the second time in two weeks, after October CPI printed at 0.4% month-on-month against a 0.3% forecast and pushed December Fed hike odds to 100%. The reading, published this week, killed a post-election rally that had lasted six sessions. FN Trading Lab laid out the damage and its trading plan for XAUUSD in a December 11 analysis on TradingView.

December pricing now shows certainty of at least a 25-basis-point hike, with a 13.2% probability of a 50bp move. That larger increment entered the picture after Fed Governor Waller said a core reading of 0.3% would prompt him to consider it, according to the analysis. Gold fell nearly 3% on Tuesday and extended the selloff Wednesday.

How did the chart break?

The technical damage is structural, FN Trading Lab wrote. Price peaked at $4,148 on Monday before a CHOCH on the one-hour timeframe confirmed the reversal on Tuesday. The order block at 4,055–4,070, flagged as key support, failed to hold, and price broke through it and the $4,000 zone in quick succession. A break of structure to the downside has since printed, confirming the short-term trend has turned bearish.

The analyst's conclusion is blunt. The midterm-driven rally lasted six sessions before one CPI print fully retraced it, which the analysis calls "a stark reminder that the macro driver here is real yields and Fed policy, not technical levels."

Where does gold go next?

TD Securities has flagged $3,900 as the next support target, and central bank buying has been cited as the reason the floor has held at similar levels in recent weeks. That bid is likely to be tested again at the gap zone visible around $3,970–$3,990.

The analyst's stance: "My view has reverted to bearish." The pattern is established — gold rallies on soft macro such as the midterms, an oil pullback or weak nonfarm payrolls, and gets sold on hard macro like hot CPI, hot PPI or strong payrolls. "Until December FOMC is behind us, every bounce is a potential sell," the analysis reads. "The question is not whether gold will face pressure from December expectations, but how deep the next leg goes."

What are the trade scenarios?

FN Trading Lab set three setups on the H1 timeframe:

• Primary sell: watch 4,000–4,015, the broken $4,000 level and prior order-block base. Confirmed if a bounce stalls with a bearish CHOCH on M15/M30. Invalidated by an H1 close above 4,025.
• Deeper-retest sell: watch 4,055–4,070, the broken order block. Confirmed if a stronger bounce is rejected with a bearish H1 CHOCH. Invalidated by an H1 close above 4,080.
• Counter-trend buy: watch 3,960–3,980, the current area approaching prior support. Confirmed by sharp displacement back above $4,000 with a bullish M15 CHOCH. Invalidated by an H1 close below 3,955.

Near resistance sits at 4,000–4,015, with further resistance at 4,055–4,070. Near support at 3,960–3,975 is being tested now, followed by TD Securities' $3,900 target and the gap zone at $3,886–$3,890 that held as the floor in late October.

A daily close below $3,870 would fully undo the midterm bounce and resume the downtrend from September, the analysis warns. PPI data due this week could add another directional push depending on the number. FN Trading Lab notes the piece reflects a personal view and technical read, not financial advice or a specific buy/sell recommendation.