Himax Stock Fell 26% on Weak Guidance. One Analyst Calls It a Trap

By Grace Kim

Himax Technologies (NASDAQ: HIMX) lost 26 percent of its value in a single session on November 5, after the chipmaker guided Q4 revenue down 22 to 26 percent on an auto chip slowdown. The analyst behind the TradingView report "HIMX: When panic creates a perfect storm," published under the handle TotoshkaTrades, argues the selloff wasn't a catastrophe. It was a setup.

The crowd dumped shares. The professionals, in the analyst's telling, bought them.

What happened on November 5?

Two numbers frame the day. First, the 26 percent single-session collapse. Second, the absolute low of $7.34 the stock printed during the panic.

The cause was straightforward: a projected 22 to 26 percent revenue drop for Q4, driven by slowing demand for automotive chips. Weak guidance, not weak execution, triggered the rout.

"The crowd saw a catastrophe and started dumping shares," the analyst wrote. "Professionals saw a perfect macro entry point."

Why does the analyst call it a bear trap?

The technical evidence starts with volume. After the crash to $7.34, trading volume dropped sharply and the price stabilized in a tight range around $8.50. At that level, a Point of Control (POC) has formed — the price of maximum traded volume.

In the analyst's reading, that POC signals hidden accumulation: large capital quietly absorbing shares from exhausted sellers, with large players' limit orders holding the floor under the price.

Three more signals stack on top:

• The 2019 trendline held. The global uptrend line drawn from 2019 runs exactly through the $8.50 zone. The price touched it and bounced, which the analyst reads as confirmation that the long-term bullish vector is intact.
• Extreme oversold readings. The stock dropped below the golden ratio — past both the 0.705 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement levels — into what the report calls an extreme oversold zone. "This is where fundamental fear meets mathematical logic."
• Moving average compression. The 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages have compressed into a tight knot, with the price holding just above them. The analyst likens it to energy before a breakout: "The market is coiled like a spring."

What are the price targets?

From the current level near $8.50, the report sets two upside objectives:

• $13.57 — the first target, defined as a breakout from the consolidation zone.
• $17.46 — the second target, the global resistance zone.

The bounce scenario carries "maximum priority" as long as two conditions hold, according to the analysis: the price stays above the Point of Control at $8.50, and it keeps defending the 2019 diagonal trendline.

Break either, and the thesis is off.

What's the so-what?

The report's core claim is that retail panic has fully played out while structural signals — volume concentration, trendline defense, Fibonacci extremes, and MA compression — all point the other way. In the analyst's words, "the bad earnings report became not a death sentence, but a springboard for a new upward wave."

The report closes with a standard disclaimer: it is for analytical purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. The $17.46 target implies a rough doubling from $8.50 — a claim that lives or dies on whether HIMX holds its 2019 trendline through the coming weeks.