Hyundai Poised to Outsell Ford in U.S. for First Time

Hyundai Motor is expected to outsell Ford Motor in quarterly U.S. sales for the first time ever, according to a forecast released Thursday by Cox Automotive.

Cox predicts Hyundai will report a 6.5% year-over-year sales increase from July through September, reaching 511,421 units. Ford, by contrast, is expected to post a 7.1% decline to 504,172 new vehicles sold in the third quarter.

The shift would make Hyundai the third best-selling automaker in the U.S., behind General Motors and Toyota Motor.

The expected changing of the guard comes during a stronger-than-expected year for new vehicle sales. Cox raised its 2026 forecast by roughly 2% on Thursday, to 16.1 million units.

"The automotive market this year has been pretty resilient," Jeremy Robb, Cox chief economist, said Thursday during a media call. "New and used sales are both down year over year, but they're not down really that much."

Hyundai's momentum, Ford's stumbles

Hyundai, including its luxury Genesis brand and corporate sibling Kia, has been making major inroads in the U.S. this year. Ford has struggled with production of its crucial F-Series pickup trucks following two supplier fires last year that disrupted production and sales.

Hyundai CEO José Muñoz told CNBC last month that topping Ford in U.S. sales is not a goal, but if it happens, it stems from the company's focus on products and execution.

"We focus on delivering, the best, safe products to the customer with the highest possible quality," Muñoz said, noting the company is No. 3 in sales globally. "And we end up achieving unbelievable goals."

Beyond Ford's pickup production troubles, Cox analysts said sales for Ford and crosstown rival GM are being hindered by a lack of hybrid vehicles — a rapidly growing segment in the U.S. amid inflated gas prices.

"If you don't have vehicles to catch [consumers] where they are, then there are other manufacturers that likely would step into the gap," Erin Keating, a Cox executive analyst, said Thursday during a media call.

The product gap is stark. GM offers only a hybrid version of its Corvette. Ford's hybrids are limited to its Maverick and F-150 pickup trucks. Toyota, the hybrid leader, covers the segment far more broadly.

Toyota closes in on GM

Toyota has also been narrowing its sales gap with No. 1 GM. Cox said last quarter that GM could be overtaken by the Japanese automaker in annual U.S. sales this year.

GM is expected to report a 5.2% year-over-year sales decline to 671,706 new vehicles in the third quarter, according to Cox. Toyota is predicted to post a 2.2% gain to 642,707 units. For the year, Toyota trails GM by fewer than 121,100 units.

If Toyota tops GM, it would mark only the second time Toyota has ever outsold GM in annual U.S. sales. The first was 2021, when supply chain disruptions affected vehicle production.

Cox experts pointed to fuel prices — at a AAA national average of $4.48 per gallon — as a drag on sales of big trucks and SUVs, the vehicles that anchor Detroit's volumes.

GM, Ford and Chrysler parent Stellantis have also renewed their focus on gas-guzzling V-8 engines in larger pickups and SUVs, betting on deregulation of emissions and fuel economy standards under the Trump administration.

"I think that's probably one of the callouts for the domestics is that they have made some interesting decisions around product," Keating said.

Cox expects Stellantis to report a 1.3% decline in U.S. vehicle sales during the third quarter, though total sales for the year should be up 2.8% as the automaker runs a companywide turnaround plan.

The third-quarter numbers, once reported, will test whether Detroit's bet on large combustion trucks can hold as hybrid demand grows and gasoline sits near $4.50 a gallon.