Kalshi Seeks $65 Billion Valuation to Build Compute Futures Platform

Kalshi is in talks to raise fresh capital at a $65 billion valuation to build a platform for trading compute futures, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday. That figure would nearly triple the $22 billion price tag from the company's Coatue-led round just over five months ago. In valuation terms, we're talking about adding roughly $43 billion in perceived worth in under half a year — on the strength of a product that doesn't exist yet.

Kalshi could not immediately be reached for comment, and the $65 billion figure comes from fundraising talks, not a completed transaction. That caveat matters for practitioners. Term-sheet chatter and signed paperwork are different animals, and valuations discussed mid-negotiation routinely move before a round closes.

What are compute futures, and why do they matter?

Compute futures are financial contracts that let traders hedge or speculate on the future prices of computing resources such as cloud and GPU capacity. The derivatives are intended to help companies manage price volatility and lock in future processing power. If you run AI infrastructure or buy GPU capacity at scale, that's the practical hook: a way to fix your compute costs before the next demand spike fixes them for you.

Who is Kalshi racing against?

The move would put Kalshi in direct competition with established exchanges. CME Group said earlier this year it was partnering with Silicon Data to launch compute futures later this year, pending regulatory review. Intercontinental Exchange was also reported to be pursuing similar products.

So Kalshi wouldn't be entering an empty market. It would be pushing into a niche that the two largest U.S. futures exchanges are already building out — while carrying a valuation that assumes it can win share from them.

The company has been moving fast on capital to fund that ambition. Kalshi closed a $1 billion round in late October, co-led by Sequoia and Wellington, amid efforts to expand beyond event contracts and compete more directly with traditional exchanges. That round came just over five months after the Coatue-led investment that valued the company at $22 billion.

Count the cadence: three major funding events — Coatue, then Sequoia and Wellington, now the reported talks — inside roughly a year. That's a compressed timeline even by 2024-2025 standards, and it signals how quickly investors are repricing anything adjacent to AI compute.

What does the regulator say?

The regulatory picture is the open variable. Reports earlier this week said the CFTC has postponed approval of futures contracts tied to the rental price of graphics processing units. The regulator plans to consult benchmark providers on price-manipulation concerns in what it considers a nascent asset class.

The agency's leadership, though, has voiced support for the concept. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said earlier this year: "America cannot win the AI race without a robust derivatives market for compute," while calling for industry comments on such products.

That split — rhetorical backing from the chairman, delayed approvals from the staff — is the real signal. The CFTC wants this market to exist; it just hasn't decided how to police the benchmarks underneath it. For Kalshi's prospective investors, the bet is that the regulatory logjam clears before a competitor locks up the category.

Watch for two things next: whether the $65 billion talks harden into a closed round, and whether the CFTC's benchmark consultations conclude in time for CME's planned launch later this year.