Kansas Flips Six Trump Counties as Economy Sours on Republicans

Kansas elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate for the first time in nearly a century this week, and the winning campaign flipped six counties that backed Donald Trump in 2024 and Republican Roger Marshall in 2020.

Adam Hamilton's upset in a state long treated as a reliably red stronghold came as Kansans run out of patience with Trump and the Republican Party over prices they can no longer absorb. Every county in Kansas shifted to vote more Democratic in this year's Senate race.

What changed voter behavior?

The short answer from voters themselves: costs. Linda Olson, born and raised in Junction City, voted for Trump in 2024 after researching the candidates. Two years later, she spent $700 on medication last winter while between insurance plans and skipped doses to stretch the supply. Her grocery bills are unrecognizably high, and fuel costs about a dollar more per gallon than last year.

"I thought at the time that he was the better choice of what we had," Olson said of Trump. Instead, she said, he had been acting to "make himself richer instead of really helping the people."

Olson also rejected Marshall directly. "I've seen what Roger Marshall did over the eight years or so that he's been doing this," she said. "And I thought, it's time we get fresh blood up there."

Where did the votes shift?

Most of Kansas is farmland — nearly 45 million acres, employing roughly one in five Kansans. The most rural corners of the state remain deeply Republican, said Michael Smith, a political science professor at Emporia State University, located in one of the six flipped counties.

But neighboring communities such as Junction City and Emporia depend heavily on the agricultural economy and have felt the strain on farmers. "The people that live here aren't actually farmers," Smith said. "And they're more likely to swing over to the other party because the economy is really taking a beating."

Smith said the election peeled off voters who are conservative but not loyal to Trump personally. "Not everybody that voted for Trump is part of this cult of personality that Trump has tried to make the Republican party into," he said.

How hard are the price hits?

Dan Duever, a 75-year-old semi-retired farmer in Geary County, said fuel costs on his farm have tripled — from about $15,000 to closer to $45,000 — because of record-high diesel prices. He has stopped driving one of his diesel trucks. His fertilizer costs have roughly doubled. He blamed Trump for Republicans getting "hurt so bad" in the midterms, citing the economy and the war in Iran — yet he still voted Republican.

"I'm a damn Republican," Duever said.

The squeeze reaches beyond farms. David Aguirre, 25, works at El Patron Dos, a Mexican restaurant in Junction City. "It has, like, a domino effect for families," he said. "If they're not doing their best, they're not gonna come out to eat, and then that affects staff, and cooks, and so on."

Janet Grimm, an independent voter, checked out of a grocery store on Wednesday with eggs, chicken, deli meat, two cucumbers and powdered sugar — over $60. She voted for Hamilton. "I really have faith that they're going to do good," she said.

How did Hamilton position himself?

Hamilton campaigned on "leading from the middle," following what Smith called an increasingly reliable Kansas playbook: run as a moderate, distant from the national Democratic Party. In his victory speech on Tuesday, Hamilton promised bipartisan collaboration to "solve problems like it used to be."

"I'm going to tell you a little secret. I want to become Jerry Moran's best friend," Hamilton said of the state's Republican senator. "For the rest of the United States, in deeply red Kansas, the heart of America, I want us to model what it looks like when thoughtful people actually work together to solve problems, instead of slinging mud at each other."

A former megachurch pastor, Hamilton retold the parable of the Good Samaritan to make the point: "If Jesus were telling this parable to a room filled with Democrats, he'd say, 'And there was a Republican who came along and stopped and helped the man.'"

Smith cautions against reading the result as a realignment. "It's still a pretty conservative state," he said. "Let's not get too hasty here." The counties flipped on economics, not ideology — and that lever cuts both ways in 2026.