Moderna Lifts 2026 Revenue Outlook to 25% Growth, Stock Jumps 10%

By Daniel Okafor

Moderna raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to a range of 15% to 25% on Friday, up from prior guidance of 10%, and its shares surged 10% in premarket trading. The revision lands as the biotech's stock rides a 682% year-to-date rally, the best performance in the S&P 500.

The company, best known for advancing mRNA technology, credited its recent commercial performance for the higher forecast.

"Building on this momentum, we increased our full-year revenue growth outlook to 15%-25%," Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in a statement.

What drove the raise?

Third-quarter results supplied the fuel. Revenue rose 29% to $1.3 billion, up from $1.0 billion in the same three months last year. The FactSet estimate was $890 million, meaning Moderna beat expectations by more than $400 million.

The third quarter is usually Moderna's highest-revenue quarter because of the seasonality of its COVID, RSV and flu vaccines.

Profit also surprised. Adjusted earnings came in at 38 cents a share, against a FactSet estimate that anticipated a loss of 80 cents. Moderna reported net income of $162 million.

Nearly all of the revenue still comes from Spikevax, the COVID vaccine. That concentration explains why the guidance range — 15% to 25% — matters more than a single number: Spikevax demand swings with the season.

How are the new vaccines doing?

Moderna did not share sales figures for mFlusiva, its mRNA-based flu vaccine approved in August, or its RSV vaccine, which the FDA first approved in 2024.

Both products are reaching the U.S. market for the first time. The company described the mFlusiva launch this year as "limited."

The company has not yet disclosed what portion of the $1.3 billion came from either shot, so investors cannot yet judge the new products' contribution independently.

Why is the stock up 682% this year?

The market is betting on a cancer vaccine, not the flu shot. Moderna is developing a therapeutic cancer vaccine, intismeran, with Merck.

The two companies announced in August that intismeran met the primary endpoint in a Phase 3 trial. At a cancer conference last month, they released the full trial data, which showed the treatment cut the risk of recurrence and death when administered alongside Merck's cancer drug Keytruda.

On Friday, the companies said they are preparing to submit the vaccine to regulators. That filing would move intismeran closer to a market that investors have already priced at a premium.

What happens next?

The scale of the rally frames the risk. Moderna's 682% gain stands against a 7.2% rise for the S&P 500 this year, a gap of nearly 675 percentage points.

Investors will get the next detailed picture soon. Moderna hosts an analyst day on Nov. 12, where the regulatory path for intismeran and the commercial ramp of mFlusiva will face scrutiny.