Morgan Stanley Raises AI Power Shortfall Call to 38 Gigawatts

By Grace Kim

Morgan Stanley raised its call for a global net power shortfall in 2026-2028 to 38 gigawatts, up from 33 gigawatts, and named Bloom Energy and Solaris Energy Infrastructure as the top beneficiaries of the electricity crunch building behind the AI data-center boom.

Bloom Energy's stock was the best performer in the S&P 500 index on Monday. The move came after analysts at Morgan Stanley published a note that same day singling out the two companies as the biggest winners of an imminent power squeeze.

The analysts said the projected shortfall "will likely increase the urgency, and premia paid, to secure time-to-power solutions in the U.S."

The urgency around securing power for AI developers, they added, remains underappreciated by the market.

Who are the winners Morgan Stanley picked?

Bloom Energy is a behind-the-meter power generator that runs on fuel cells. Solaris Energy Infrastructure is also an onsite power developer, but it uses natural gas-powered turbines and other equipment.

Both companies sit exactly where the AI buildout needs them: on-site generation that doesn't wait for the grid.

Morgan Stanley also flagged four bitcoin-focused companies that have broadly pivoted to AI infrastructure and data-center development:

• Cipher Digital
• Hut 8
• Riot Platforms
• TeraWulf

How big is the power gap, really?

The analysts' headline number: 38 gigawatts of projected net power shortfall across 2026-2028, up from their prior estimate of 33 gigawatts.

They called the gap "real" and a genuine constraint to the AI buildout. But they also noted that "many investors" hold the view that companies will find creative ways around the bottlenecks.

The analysts laid out several mitigation levers beyond a bigger role for behind-the-meter businesses like Bloom and Solaris:

• Potential power expansion in Asia
• The emergence of grid-enhancing technologies
• Data-center curtailment

Each lever faces constraints of its own, they cautioned, including labor shortages and hard limits on what grid optimization can actually deliver.

The takeaway: the shortfall is real, but the market is split on whether it stays binding.

What did the stocks do on the news?

Bloom Energy shares were on pace Monday for their largest one-day percentage rise since Sept. 29, when the stock jumped 11%. The stock is up more than 140% this year, and that stacks on top of gains of nearly 300% in 2025.

Solaris Energy shares were tracking toward their largest one-day boost since Wednesday, when they rose 9.5%. The stock is up 38% year to date, adding to 2025 gains of 60%.

In plain terms: both names had already re-rated hard before Monday, and Morgan Stanley's note added fresh fuel.

The so-what is straightforward. If the 38-gigawatt gap holds and time-to-power premia rise as the analysts expect, behind-the-meter generators and converted bitcoin miners with ready power assets are the names to watch — until labor and grid limits test how fast anyone can actually build.